Hot Metal Production Continues to Decline, Mainly Affected by Accident at One Steel Mill

After market close, the Ministry of Commerce issued policies regarding the management of steel product export licenses, confirming market rumors from the past two days. This move exceeded general expectations, as previous speculation about such measures had often been dismissed as "crying wolf." Now, the policy has indeed arrived. What is the actual situation? Let’s examine SMM’s analysis.

During the survey period from December 2 to December 8, both the operating rate and capacity utilization rate of rebar rolling lines at steel mills in the Central China region declined; similarly, the operating rate and capacity utilization rate of wire rod rolling lines also decreased.

As of December 2, the operating rate for 50 EAF steel mills primarily producing construction materials nationwide was 39.1%, up 0.74% WoW; the capacity utilization rate was 41.06%, up 1.17% WoW; the daily average production of construction materials was 92,700 mt, an increase of 2,600 mt WoW.

According to the SMM survey, as of November 12, the blast furnace operating rate of the 242 steel mills surveyed by SMM stood at 86.64%, up 0.24 percentage points WoW.

Cold rolling capacity increased by 60% over the past decade. From 2015 to 2020, cold rolling capacity grew steadily and rapidly, with an average annual growth rate of 9.7%, peaking at around 11% in 2020. Starting in 2021, the Implementation Measures for Capacity Replacement in the Steel Industry promoted an increase in the cold rolling capacity utilization rate, leading to a significant rise in cold rolling production, while the growth rate of cold rolling capacity slowed down, with the average annual growth rate from 2021 to 2024 slowing to 2.9%.

Vale (NYSE:VALE) is setting its sights on India as the next big growth story in steel. CEO Gustavo Pimenta told Reuters that while China's steel production has flattened at around 1 billion metric tons a year, India's demand is just getting started and Vale wants to be ready.

SMM Steel, November 4 – According to SMM statistics, the estimated total shipments of mainstream markets this week were 245,800 mt, up 31.51% WoW. By market:

According to the SMM survey, the impact from maintenance on construction steel declined during the current period (9.6-9.12) as steel mills resumed production as planned after the military parade, while some completed routine maintenance on blast furnaces, with both the furnaces and their supporting rebar rolling lines returning to operation. The impact from maintenance on construction steel reached 1.213 million mt this period, down 20,600 mt MoM.

Overall, according to data from the General Administration of Customs, the total exports of the involved products from China to Malaysia in the first five months of 2025 were only 54,200 mt, accounting for less than 1% of China's total exports of the involved products, with a relatively small overall impact. This is not on the same scale as the total exports of the involved products in China. In extreme cases, this may lead to a decrease of 54,300 mt in China's total exports YoY in 2026. SMM will track in real time the progress and impact of overseas anti-dumping investigations on steel. Please stay tuned for relevant reports. For more information, follow SMM's official account~

According to research by SMM, on March 20th, the blast furnace operating rate was 89.45%, marking a 0.3% increase compared to the previous period. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate stood at 90.38%, rising by 0.50% compared to the previous period. Additionally, the daily average hot metal production of sample steel mills reached 2.16 million tons, marking an increase of 11,900 tons compared to the previous period.