China's Prebaked Anode Exports Show Positive Trend in 2025, Ample Growth Momentum Expected in 2026 [SMM Analysis]

SMM, Jan 21:

According to customs data, China's prebaked anode exports totaled 203,700 mt in December 2025, up 2.70% YoY but down 10.59% MoM. The average export price was approximately $834.8/mt, up 28.54% YoY and 4.48% MoM. Cumulative prebaked anode exports for 2025 reached 2.2887 million mt, up 5.42% YoY.

By domestic export region, prebaked anode exports in 2025 were concentrated in Shandong, Jiangsu, and Hunan. Shandong contributed 1.6798 million mt, accounting for 74% of the total and ranking first, followed by Jiangsu (190,700 mt, 8%) and Hunan (180,500 mt, 8%).

By destination country, the main export markets in 2025 were Malaysia, Indonesia, and Canada, together accounting for about 52% of total exports. Exports to Malaysia totaled 509,900 mt (22% of total, down 7.06% YoY), to Indonesia 343,200 mt (15%, up 78.44% YoY), and to Canada 338,000 mt (15%, up 27.05% YoY).

Price-wise, the upward trend in December's average export price continued, though prices diverged subsequently. According to SMM surveys, export order prices in January showed a mixed trend, with prices to Southeast Asia slightly declining in line with domestic market trends, while prices to the Middle East, Europe, and the US continued to rise, with adjustments within $20/mt. Overall, prebaked anode export orders remain resilient, and the upward price trend persists.

For the full year 2025, prebaked anode export orders performed well overall. Based on SMM tracking, full-year exports are expected to approach 2.3 million mt, maintaining growth momentum. Looking ahead to 2026, supported by increasing prebaked anode demand from ongoing overseas aluminum capacity expansion, SMM expects China's prebaked anode exports to continue growing, with the growth rate likely to expand further to over 7%.