Gediktepe Sulfide Ore Expansion Progresses, LME Copper Closes Lower Overnight [SMM Copper Morning Meeting Minutes]

Wednesday, January 21, 2026
Futures: LME copper opened at $12,869.5/mt overnight. It initially touched a high of $12,933.5/mt, then the price center moved downward. After hitting a low of $12,680/mt, it experienced a slight correction and finally closed at $12,796.5/mt, a decrease of 1.47%. Trading volume reached 28,000 lots, and open interest stood at 326,000 lots, a decrease of 589 lots from the previous trading day, primarily due to long liquidation. The most-traded SHFE copper contract 2603 opened at 101,020 yuan/mt overnight. It initially touched a high of 100,900 yuan/mt, then the price center moved downward, hitting a low of 99,210 yuan/mt. It finally closed at 99,930 yuan/mt, a decrease of 1.29%. Trading volume reached 123,000 lots, and open interest stood at 218,000 lots, a decrease of 1,278 lots from the previous trading day, also mainly reflecting long liquidation.
[SMM Copper Morning Conference Minutes] News:
(1) On January 21, significant progress was made on the Gediktepe sulfide ore expansion project owned by ACG Metals in Q4 2025, with multiple key construction and equipment milestones completed as planned, maintaining good overall construction progress. During the reporting period, foundation work for the primary crushing system was completed, structural steel was installed, and major equipment including the jaw crusher, raw ore bin, and feeding system were installed. Foundation work for the SAG mill and ball mill was completed, and structural steel installation for the mill building is underway. Meanwhile, foundation work for the flotation and filtration plant was completed, and civil engineering for the tailings storage facility progressed as scheduled. The company still expects to commence copper and zinc production in mid-2026.
Spot:
(1) Shanghai: During the morning session on January 20, the SHFE copper 2602 contract first rose, then fell, and subsequently experienced a slight rebound. It opened at 101,380 yuan/mt and rose, repeatedly touching a high of 101,700 yuan/mt, then declined, probing lows of 100,700 yuan/mt twice, before rising slightly to close at 101,000 yuan/mt. The Contango spread between the front-month and the next contract ranged from 260 yuan/mt to 190 yuan/mt. The import arbitrage loss for the front-month SHFE copper contract was between 760-810 yuan/mt. Looking ahead to today, continued warrant outflows are expected to put further pressure on spot premiums/discounts. With high copper prices, downstream buyers primarily made just-in-time procurement. The spot market is expected to maintain discounts tomorrow. Additionally, snowfall occurred in some northern cities, causing delays for some cargo arrivals, but overall logistics remained smooth.
(2) Guangdong: On January 20, spot prices for #1 copper cathode in Guangdong against the front-month contract were at a discount of 220-100 yuan/mt, with an average discount of 160 yuan/mt, down 75 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. SX-EW copper was quoted at a discount of 280-260 yuan/mt, with an average discount of 270 yuan/mt, down 80 yuan/mt from the previous day. The average price for #1 copper cathode in Guangdong was 100,915 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous day. The average price for SX-EW copper was 100,805 yuan/mt, down 5 yuan/mt from the previous day. Overall, suppliers actively sold goods, leading to a significant decrease in spot premiums, and the overall trading atmosphere was moderate.
(3) Imported copper: On January 20, warrant prices were $20-32/mt, QP January, with the average price down $2/mt from the previous trading day; B/L prices were $20-30/mt, QP February, with the average price down $2/mt from the previous trading day; EQ copper (CIF B/L) was -$14/mt to $2/mt, QP February, with the average price flat from the previous trading day. Quotations referred to cargoes arriving in mid-to-late January.
(4) Secondary copper: At 11:30 on January 20, the futures closing price was 100,780 yuan/mt, down 380 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the average spot premium/discount was -150 yuan/mt, down 30 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Today, secondary copper raw material prices were flat MoM. Guangdong bare bright copper prices were 89,200-89,400 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap was 3,034 yuan/mt, down 410 yuan/mt MoM. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 1,435 yuan/mt. According to an SMM survey, secondary copper rod enterprises currently have insufficient purchase willingness. Daily copper scrap arrivals mainly consist of previously ordered goods. After the recent copper price pullback and fluctuations, many secondary copper rod enterprises hold a bearish view on the future market, so they immediately process the copper scrap received each day into finished products.
Prices: On the macro front, the White House issued threats to Europe regarding Greenland's future, while Trump threatened to impose additional tariffs on the EU, triggering global trade and geopolitical uncertainties and boosting market risk-off sentiment. On the fundamentals side, warrants continued to flow out, and spot supply of copper cathode was relatively ample. Demand side, high copper prices led downstream buyers to adopt a cautious wait-and-see attitude, with just-in-time procurement being the main approach. Overall, weighed by macro risk-off sentiment and weak fundamental demand, copper prices were expected to continue their decline today.
[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct investment research or decision-making advice. Clients should make decisions cautiously and not use this to replace their own independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.]