[SMM Analysis] Overseas Lead Ingot Suppliers' Willingness to Ship Weakens, China's Lead Ingot Imports Expected to Decline in January?

SMM January 20:
According to customs data, China's refined lead exports totaled 2,767 mt in December 2025, up 141.08% MoM and 270.61% YoY. Total exports of refined lead and lead materials from January to December reached 59,440 mt, up 42.5% YoY. On the import side, China's refined lead imports stood at 8,395 mt in December, while lead alloy imports reached 24,011 mt. Total imports of refined lead and lead materials from January to December amounted to 198,641 mt, down 10.19% YoY.

Based on the above data, refined lead imports in December showed a stable but slightly declining trend, while lead alloy imports remained relatively stable due to rigid demand. Exports increased significantly. The main reason was that the supply-demand relationship in the domestic lead market was relatively loose in December 2025, putting spot lead prices under pressure and driving the price center down 1.01% MoM from November.

Entering January 2026, lead price trends were weighed down by rising lead ingot inventory pressure in China, as consumption performance had yet to improve. Meanwhile, LME lead outperformed China due to macro sentiment and geopolitical factors, dampening enthusiasm for overseas lead ingot inflows into China.

It is reported that quoted premiums for mainstream quality imported lead ingots arriving in January against the SMM #1 lead average price widened to discounts of 100-50 yuan/mt, yet still attracted no interest. For example, Japanese lead ingots (containing small amounts of antimony and tin) arriving at Shanghai port were quoted at a premium of 50 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price for self pick-up last month, but this month were quoted at a discount of 50-0 yuan/mt. Southeast Asian lead ingots (standard quality) arriving at Guangdong Shekou port were quoted at a discount of 300 yuan/mt this month.

Weak transactions led overseas lead ingot suppliers to reduce shipment willingness. Some overseas enterprises told SMM they would stop shipments to China before the Chinese New Year, with resumption expected in late February.

In summary, lead ingot digestion in the Chinese market was relatively slow, coupled with reduced shipment willingness among overseas suppliers. SMM predicts lead ingot imports into China will decline in January.

Data source statement: Except for publicly available information, other data are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database model, for reference only and not constituting decision-making advice.