[SMM Analysis] Domestic Capacity Expansion Severely Squeezes China’s Ferrochrome Imports in 2025

In 2025, the global chromium market witnessed adjustments in its supply and demand dynamics. Overseas ferrochrome production saw widespread cuts and suspensions, which gradually led to a surplus of chromite ore—the raw material. Meanwhile, China’s core position in the global ferrochrome industry was further consolidated. Output in the stainless steel market, the key downstream sector, maintained an overall steady growth, but its demand for chromium exhibited significant periodic fluctuations. This drove the ferrochrome market to present an "M-shaped" operating pattern characterized by sharp rises and falls.

In industrial production, high-carbon ferrochrome, as a key alloy additive, has a wide range of applications. However, China's ferrochrome market is relatively passive: on the upstream side, it is restricted by scarce chromite resources, with an external dependence of over 99.8%; on the downstream side, approximately 90% of high-carbon ferrochrome flows into the stainless steel sector, among which more than 80% is settled through long-term contracts, guided by the bidding prices of mainstream steel mills. Meanwhile, in recent years, the high-carbon ferrochrome industry has been plagued by severe overcapacity, leading to increasingly fierce market competition and significantly greater price fluctuations. Against this backdrop, after long-term accumulation and in-depth market research, SMM officially launched the High-Carbon Ferrochrome Steel Bidding Price Expectation Index. This index aims to more truly and effectively reflect the current market dynamics of the chrome market, predict market price expectations in advance, and reduce transaction risks and costs.

To provide more precise and effective feedback on the market dynamics of the domestic chromium industry, better serve clients along the chromium industry chain, mitigate transaction risks and costs for enterprises, and enhance the referential value of quotations, SMM has, through a period of preparation and market research, decided to newly release three chromium-related price indices starting from July 1st:East China High-carbon Ferrochrome; Chrome Ore Oman（Cr2O3 30-32%）-（Tianjin Port）; Chrome Ore Oman（Cr2O3 30-33%）-（CIF）, for market reference.

[SMM Analysis]According to SMM data statistics, the production of high-carbon ferrochrome further increased in May 2025, up 5.76% MoM, but down 5.38% YoY. Among them, Inner Mongolia accounted for 78.26% of the production, with a MoM increase of 1.27%; the southern region, including Sichuan, Guizhou, Guangxi, etc., accounted for 17.14%, with a MoM increase of 24.69%. The tender prices for high-carbon ferrochrome from mainstream stainless steel mills rose again. Coupled with the approaching rainy season in south China and cost advantages in production, manufacturers frequently resumed production, leading to a significant increase in ferrochrome output...

To provide more accurate and effective feedback on the market trends of the domestic chrome ore market, better serve customers in the chrome industry chain, reduce transaction risks and costs for enterprises, and enhance the reference value of our price quotations, SMM, after a period of accumulation and market surveys, plans to introduce five new chrome ore price points starting from June 6.

Dear Customers, Greetings! To more accurately and effectively reflect the market fluctuations of domestic ferrochrome and chrome ore, and to better serve customers in the chrome industry chain, SMM plans to officially launch 15 new price points related to imported high-carbon ferrochrome, domestically produced low and micro-carbon ferrochrome, and imported chrome ore on January 3, 2025: South African high-carbon ferrochrome, Indian high-carbon ferrochrome, Kazakhstani high-carbon ferrochrome, Inner Mongolia medium-carbon ferrochrome (FeCr55C200), Inner Mongolia micro-carbon ferrochrome (FeCr55C10), Inner Mongolia micro-carbon ferrochrome (FeCr55C3), South African 42-44% chrome concentrate (Tianjin Port), Zimbabwean 48-50% chrome concentrate ore (Tianjin Port), Pakistani 40-42% chrome lump ore (Tianjin Port), Albanian 40-42% chrome lump ore (Tianjin Port), South African 40-42% chrome concentrate ore (Qinzhou Port), South African 42-44% chrome concentrate ore (Qinzhou Port), South African 40-42% raw chrome ore (Qinzhou Port), South African 36-38% chrome lump ore (Qinzhou Port), Zimbabwean 48-50% chrome concentrate ore (CIF……

Tsingshan Group's January 2025 long-term contract purchase price for high-carbon ferrochrome is 6,995 yuan/mt (50% metal content) (cash, tax-included, delivery-to-factory price), down 400 yuan/mt (50% metal content) MoM from December 2024. The purchase price at Tianjin Port decreased by 150 yuan/mt (50% metal content).

Dear Customers, Greetings! To provide more accurate and effective feedback on the domestic chrome ore market trends and better serve customers in the chrome industry chain, as well as to enhance the reference value of price quotations, SMM plans to officially launch daily CIF price points for chrome ore on December 25. A total of five new price points will be added: South Africa 40-42% chrome concentrate ore (CIF), South Africa 38% chrome lump ore (CIF), South Africa 40-42% raw chrome ore (CIF), Turkey 40-42% chrome lump ore (CIF), and Turkey 46-48% chrome concentrate ore (CIF).

Chromium is a lustrous, hard, steel-gray metal renowned for its high melting point and resistance to tarnishing. Found naturally in the Earth's crust, chromium is essential in various industries. It is a crucial component in the production of stainless steel, giving it the desirable characteristics of strength and corrosion resistance. Additionally, chromium is used in the manufacturing of superalloys, which are vital in the aerospace industry, and in electroplating to provide a shiny, decorative finish and enhance durability. Its utility extends to the pigmentation sector, where it is employed in creating vivid colors for paints and dyes.