SHFE tin opened slightly lower in the night session but quickly rebounded, dampening trading enthusiasm in the spot market [SMM Tin Morning News]

SMM Tin Morning Brief on January 20, 2026:

Futures: The most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2602) opened slightly lower in the night session, quickly rallied, fluctuated upward, and closed at 397,040 yuan/mt, up 2.58%.

Macro: (1) On January 19, China used the Long March 12 carrier rocket at the Hainan Commercial Space Launch Site to successfully launch 19 groups of low-orbit satellites for satellite internet into space. The satellites entered their planned orbits smoothly, marking a complete success for the launch mission. Today, satellites are mass-produced like cars, and rockets are rapidly iterating toward reusability and low cost, with launch costs expected to drop sharply from the "100 million yuan level" to the "tens of millions yuan level." This is not only about major national projects but also closely related to everyone: in the future, direct phone-to-satellite connections, seamless global communication, and space-based AI services will become part of daily life. (2) The Greenland issue continues to escalate. US President Trump threatened to further increase tariffs on European goods, causing sharp declines in the stock prices of European automakers. In early Monday trading, Mercedes-Benz Group fell as much as 6.7% in the Frankfurt market, BMW Group dropped 7%, and Volkswagen Group declined 5.4%. Over the weekend, Trump suddenly announced plans to impose an additional 10% tariff on imports from several European countries starting in February, rising to 25% in June, catching multiple European countries, including Germany and France, off guard. BMW, Mercedes-Benz, and Volkswagen all rely on the US market as a major source of revenue and profit. These automakers export car models such as the S-Class to the US and have already been impacted by Trump's tariff policies. Currently, the US imposes a 15% tariff on most vehicles and parts imported from the EU. Last year, Trump's additional tariffs significantly raised this rate from about 2.5%, triggering profit warnings from automakers.

Fundamentals: (1) Supply side: Most smelters are expected to maintain stable production in January. (2) Demand side: Downstream procurement remains cautious, with high prices significantly suppressing actual consumption.

Spot market: Tin prices repeatedly hit record highs last week, generally limiting downstream enterprise procurement, with most controlling the pace and making small follow-up purchases. After prices pulled back below 400,000 yuan during Friday's night session, market trading sentiment improved slightly, with some rigid demand orders rationally released.

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