[SMM Analysis] 2026 Galvanized Sheet Market Outlook: Domestic Demand Diverges, Exports Sustain Growth

SMM Jan 19 News:

According to SMM data, the average operating rate of China's private galvanized sheet producers in 2025 was around 78%, up YoY. China Customs data shows that galvanized sheet exports in November 2025 totaled 1.1885 million mt, down 8.53% MoM but up 13.6% YoY. Cumulative galvanized sheet exports from January to November 2025 reached 12.93 million mt, up 10.38% YoY. For the full year, the main growth driver in the galvanized sheet market was export consumption, while domestic demand remained weak.

Domestic trade side, galvanized sheet consumption across various sectors in 2025 showed mixed performance. SMM estimates indicate that the continued downturn in the real estate market in 2025 dragged down related construction demand, with the share of construction galvanized sheet expected to fall to around 30%. CAAM statistics show that from January to December 2025, auto production and sales reached 34.531 million units and 34.4 million units, up 10.4% and 9.4% YoY, respectively. NEV sales accounted for 47.9% of total new auto sales, and the expansion of the auto market drove continued growth in demand for automotive galvanized sheet. Home appliance market demand also improved, boosted by subsidy policies such as trade-in programs. From January to November 2025, cumulative production of washing machines and sales of refrigerators and air conditioners increased 6.3%, 1.2%, and 1.6% YoY, respectively. Overall, galvanized sheet consumption in 2025 increased slightly MoM.

Looking ahead to 2026, SMM expects galvanized sheet demand to continue growing. Although the real estate and construction markets show no signs of improvement, with related construction and completion activities maintaining negative growth rates and continuing to drag on galvanized sheet demand—their share is expected to keep declining—the home appliance market continues to expand. With rising export ratios and support from domestic consumption policies, home appliance production and sales in China are expected to maintain positive growth in the coming years. The auto market, however, shows some divergence: while the share of NEVs continues to expand, the consumption of galvanized sheet per NEV is significantly lower than that for internal combustion engine vehicles due to lightweighting requirements. The growth rate of the automotive galvanized sheet market is expected to gradually slow down.

Export market analysis: Boosted by demand growth in Southeast Asia and Belt and Road Initiative countries, cumulative galvanized sheet exports from January to November 2025 increased 10.38% YoY, showing significant growth. Entering 2026, the Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs issued Announcement No. 79 of 2025, implementing export license management for certain steel products. It requires foreign trade operators to apply for export licenses based on export contracts and quality inspection certificates issued by producers. The announcement took effect on January 1, 2026. In the long term, the room for low-value-added orders and those involving forging or purchasing customs clearance documents from other import and export firms is expected to shrink. However, considering the ongoing infrastructure construction and industrialization in some overseas countries, overseas demand for galvanized sheet is expected to continue growing. Continued vigilance is needed against trade barrier risks such as anti-dumping measures and overseas tariffs.

(The above information is based on market collection and comprehensive evaluation by the SMM research team. The information provided in this article is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research and decision-making. Customers should make cautious decisions and should not replace their independent judgment with this information. Any decisions made by customers are not related to SMM.)