[SMM Nickel Midday Review] Nickel prices adjusted and pulled back on January 19, while China's GDP grew 5% YoY in 2025.

SMM Nickel January 19 News:

Macro and Market News:

(1) China's full-year gross domestic product (GDP) for 2025 reached 140.19 trillion yuan, calculated at constant prices, up 5.0% YoY. By quarter, GDP grew 5.4% YoY in Q1, 5.2% in Q2, 4.8% in Q3, and 4.5% in Q4. On a QoQ basis, GDP increased 1.2% in Q4.

(2) The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) held its 2026 system work conference on January 15, summarizing work in 2025, analyzing the current situation, and studying and deploying tasks for 2026. The meeting emphasized adhering to a stability-first approach and consolidating the steady and improving market momentum.

Spot Market:

On January 19, the SMM #1 refined nickel price ranged from 141,400-150,400 yuan/mt, with an average price of 145,900 yuan/mt, down 3,450 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium quotation range for Jinchuan #1 refined nickel was 7,500-8,200 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 7,850 yuan/mt, up 1,350 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The spot premium/discount quotation range for mainstream domestic brands of electrodeposited nickel was -200-500 yuan/mt.

Futures Market:

The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (2602) pulled back sharply during Friday's night session before rebounding, and maintained a fluctuating trend during Monday's morning session. As of the morning close, it was quoted at 142,060 yuan/mt, down 1.6%.

The nickel market remains in a fierce tug-of-war between "strong expectations for Indonesian policies" and the reality of "high inventory and weak demand." In the short term, as long as expectations for production cuts on the Indonesian supply side persist, nickel prices are likely to hover at highs.