[SMM Chromium Weekly Review] Cost Support Sentiment Bullish, Chromium Market Quotations Steadily Raised

On January 16, 2026, the ex-factory price of high-carbon ferrochrome in Inner Mongolia was 8,350-8,500 yuan/mt (50% metal content); in Sichuan and north-west China, the ex-factory price was 8,400-8,550 yuan/mt (50% metal content); in east China, the quotation for high-carbon ferrochrome was 8,550-8,650 yuan/mt (50% metal content), flat WoW. For imported ferrochrome, the quotation for Indian high-carbon ferrochrome was 8,500-8,600 yuan/mt (50% metal content); the quotation for Kazakh high-carbon ferrochrome was 9,100-9,200 yuan/mt (50% metal content), flat WoW.

This week, the ferrochrome market continued to rise, supported by both cost and demand, with retail quotations up 175 yuan/mt (50% metal content) WoW. Cost side, spot chrome ore prices kept climbing, futures quotations rose sharply to $280/mt, smelting costs moved up steadily, strengthening the bottom support for ferrochrome prices. Demand side, the downstream stainless steel market recovered significantly, futures hit limit-up, spot prices followed the rise, profits improved markedly, boosting market confidence. Meanwhile, stainless steel planned production rebounded in January, coupled with the gradual release of winter stockpiling procurement demand, leading to increased inquiries and deals for ferrochrome. However, spot retail ferrochrome supply is tight, with some producers' orders scheduled until mid-February, resulting in a strong mentality to hold prices firm. The ferrochrome market is expected to hold up well in the short term, pending changes in the downstream stainless steel market and the specific price of the new round of steel mill tenders.

Raw material side, on January 16, 2026, the spot quotation for 40-42% South African concentrate at Tianjin port was 54-55 yuan/mtu; for 40-42% South African raw ore, it was 50-52.5 yuan/mtu; for 46-48% Zimbabwean chrome concentrate, it was 57-58 yuan/mtu; for 48-50% Zimbabwean chrome concentrate ore, it was 58.5-59.5 yuan/mtu; for 40-42% Turkish chrome lump ore, it was 60-62 yuan/mtu; for 46-48% Turkish chrome concentrate ore, it was 63-64 yuan/mtu, all flat WoW. Futures side, the latest quotation for 40-42% South African concentrate was $280/mt, up $12 WoW.

This week, chrome ore prices continued to rise, with market activity increasing. Spot side, Zimbabwe's chrome ore export tax policy raised ore costs, high futures prices strengthened domestic spot price firmness, Zimbabwean concentrate prices rose 2.5 yuan/mtu within the week; South African raw ore quotations also increased due to limited port arrivals, and transactions were relatively concentrated due to rising demand. The release of winter stockpiling procurement demand increased inquiries from ferrochrome plants, port inventories of chrome ore declined, and the chrome ore market is expected to operate strongly and steadily in the short term. Futures side, the quotation from the main overseas mine for South African concentrate rose sharply by $12 to $280/mt, supporting market bullish sentiment, with traders showing increased purchase willingness and inquiry interest. Given good downstream market performance, traders' psychological price level for chrome ore futures rose to the $295-300 range. Subsequently, it remains essential to closely monitor whether the strong performance in the stainless steel and ferrochrome markets can be sustained, as well as any changes in chrome ore export policies and arrival conditions at ports.