Concentrated Restocking Is Expected to Commence, Iron Ore Prices Remain Supported [SMM Brief Review]

Today, iron ore futures opened higher but pulled back in the afternoon, showing a fluctuating trend of rising first and then falling. The most-traded contract I2605 closed at 812 yuan/mt, down 0.49% from the previous trading day. Spot prices fell by 0-5 yuan/mt compared to the previous trading day. Traders' quoting enthusiasm was mediocre today, while steel mills showed limited inquiry activity, with procurement mainly focused on routine restocking. Overall, the market trading atmosphere was mediocre.

According to the latest SMM statistics, iron ore inventory at 35 main ports nationwide totaled 148.76 million mt, up 1.74 million mt WoW. In terms of inventory structure, the buildup was mainly concentrated in concentrate resources. This structural change directly led to a further narrowing of the price spread between domestic and imported ore. Driven by cost-reduction and efficiency-improvement procurement strategies, the cost-effectiveness advantage of domestic ore became relatively prominent, prompting steel mills to shift procurement toward domestic ore, which partially substituted demand for imported ore.

Meanwhile, port pick-up performance was weak. SMM statistics showed that the daily average port pick-up volume was 2.446 million mt, down 29,000 mt WoW. The decline in port pick-up volume, combined with continuous inventory buildup, kept supply pressure rising, suppressing the upward momentum of iron ore prices.

In terms of market sentiment, given the lack of strong positive drivers in the futures market, bullish enthusiasm tended to be mediocre, limiting upside room. However, considering the approaching Chinese New Year holiday, the gradual release of steel mills' pre-holiday restocking expectations provided rigid support on the demand side, effectively capping the downside room for prices. Taking into account the current supply-demand situation and seasonal factors, iron ore prices are expected to face a stalemate with resistance above and support below, continuing a sideways movement in the short term.