[SMM Manganese Ore Weekly Review] Overseas Market Forward Offers Rise, Manganese Ore Market Consolidates

January 16 - North China ports: South African high-iron 30.5-32.6 yuan/mtu, up 1.61% WoW; South African semi-carbonate 36.5-37 yuan/mtu, up 2.80% WoW; Gabon 43-43.6 yuan/mtu, flat WoW; 46% Australian lumps 43.9-44.4 yuan/mtu, flat WoW; South African medium-iron 38.1-38.6 yuan/mtu, flat WoW.

South China ports: South African high-iron 32.2-32.9 yuan/mtu, up 1.56% WoW; South African semi-carbonate 35-35.7 yuan/mtu, down 0.84% WoW; Gabon 41.5-42 yuan/mtu, flat WoW; 46% Australian lumps 41.5-42.2 yuan/mtu, flat WoW; South African medium-iron 38.9-39.4 yuan/mtu, flat WoW.

Manganese ore market prices continued their firm trend, with spot transaction prices remaining high.

Supply side, the overseas market performed strongly this week, with offers to China rising. NMT announced its February 2026 manganese ore shipment offers to China: Mn36% (min) South African semi-carbonate lumps at $4.32/mtu (up $0.17). UMK announced its February 2026 manganese ore offers to China for South African semi-carbonate lumps at $4.32/mtu (up $0.17). The rise in overseas offers provided solid support for the increase in domestic manganese ore spot prices.

Demand side showed signs of recovery, with inquiry activity in both north and south China markets strengthening compared to pre-holiday levels. Futures side, the recent strong performance of SiMn futures created a warm market atmosphere, effectively boosting SiMn enterprises' inquiry enthusiasm for raw material manganese ore. Spot side, coinciding with the start of the winter stockpiling period, procurement pace among northern SiMn producers remained stable, providing sustained support for manganese ore demand; southern alloy producers awaited the 2026 electricity price policy, continuing a "purchase as needed" strategy. The pay-as-you-go procurement model led to relatively small increases in manganese ore purchase prices.

Overall, current domestic manganese ore market prices are fluctuating at highs. Short-term, the supply support from rising overseas offers remains, and manganese ore prices are expected to maintain their firm trend. However, two potential risks require vigilance: first, weak demand in the south has not improved, and second, high port inventory pressure is gradually accumulating. These factors could form a negative feedback loop, thereby putting downward pressure on manganese ore prices and triggering a pullback.