UBS sees gold at US$5,000/oz in risky 2026

Published: Thursday, January 15, 2026

Gold prices could break above US$5,000/oz this year and potentially climb even higher if political or financial risks escalate, according to a UBS analysis that remains constructive on the metal amid its strong rally so far in 2026.

In a daily US note titled "Gold’s Rally Can Continue Amid Higher Demand," UBS said bullion was trading above US$4,630/oz at the time of writing, up more than 7% year-to-date after surging nearly 65% in 2025. Even so, the bank expects further upside driven by hedging demand amid macroeconomic, policy and geopolitical uncertainty.

“We see bullion reaching USD 5,000/oz in the coming months amid hedging demand stemming from ongoing macroeconomic, policy, and geopolitical concerns,” UBS said. The bank added that gold prices “could also climb higher than we forecast to USD 5,400/oz if political or financial risks increase.”

UBS pointed to renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East as a key driver of haven demand. Iran has been in focus amid domestic protests and warnings from the US, with markets closely watching the continued operation of energy assets and hydrocarbon exports through the Strait of Hormuz, which accounts for roughly 20% of global oil demand. While UBS expects the oil market to remain somewhat oversupplied in the first half of the year and hesitant to price in a risk premium, the bank said gold stands out as the preferred hedge given its diversification benefits.

Institutional and policy uncertainty in the US is also underpinning demand. UBS noted that the Department of Justice’s investigation into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is unlikely to derail expected rate easing or halt the equity rally, but lingering investor concerns remain. Uncertainty around President Donald Trump’s proposed “reciprocal” tariffs, potential US Supreme Court rulings and the approach of US midterm elections are all seen as factors supporting appetite for gold.

From a macro perspective, UBS said the fundamental backdrop for gold remains favorable. Although recent data suggest contained inflation pressures, inflation is still relatively elevated, which should push real yields lower as the Fed continues easing. This environment boosts the appeal of gold given its non-interest-bearing nature. At the same time, concerns over rising global debt levels and US public finances are expected to sustain investor interest in real assets that are free from counterparty risk.

Against this backdrop, UBS expects central bank and investor demand for gold to grow further in 2026. The bank reiterated its long gold stance and said a mid-single-digit allocation to the metal makes sense within a well-diversified portfolio, while acknowledging downside risks given the metal’s elevated premium.

Source: https://www.bnamericas.com/en/analysis/ubs-sees-gold-at-us5000-in-risky-2026