Kamoa Copper Mine Achieves Production Target, LME Copper Fluctuates and Closes Lower Overnight [SMM Copper Morning Meeting Minutes]

Friday, January 16, 2026
Futures: LME copper opened at $13,082/mt overnight. It fluctuated upward initially, touching a high of $13,162.5/mt, then the price center dropped sharply to a low of $12,928/mt, before fluctuating upward again to finally close at $13,148.5/mt, down 1.14%. Trading volume reached 31,800 lots, and open interest reached 326,000 lots, an increase of 2,579 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bearish position building. The most-traded SHFE copper contract 2603 opened at 103,030 yuan/mt overnight. It touched a high of 103,180 yuan/mt at the start of trading, then the price center dropped sharply to a low of 101,220 yuan/mt, before fluctuating upward to finally close at 102,860 yuan/mt, down 0.23%. Trading volume reached 130,000 lots, and open interest reached 231,000 lots, a decrease of 4,462 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bullish position reduction.
[SMM Copper Morning Meeting Minutes] News:
(1) On January 15, Canadian mining company Ivanhoe Mines announced that the Kamoa-Kakula copper mine and Kipushi zinc mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo achieved 2025 production within guidance, with copper concentrate production of approximately 388,838 mt, and confirmed that the 2026 production target remains unchanged. The company's new copper smelter commenced operations at the end of 2025 and is gradually ramping up smelting capacity, which will reduce logistics costs and generate additional revenue from by-products like sulphuric acid. The zinc mine also achieved record production, further consolidating its position in the non-ferrous metals market.
Spot:
(1) Shanghai: During the morning session on January 15, the SHFE copper 2601 contract mostly traded between 101,300-103,150 yuan/mt, while the SHFE copper 2602 contract traded between 101,530-103,500 yuan/mt; the price spread between contracts was basically between a contango of 380 yuan and a contango of 200 yuan. Import losses for the front-month SHFE copper contract ranged between 1,560-1,770 yuan/mt. Looking ahead to today, the Shanghai area remains in a phase of continuous inventory buildup. Shanghai inventory increased by 17,400 mt WoW compared to January 12, mainly consisting of warrants. Spot premiums and discounts against the SHFE copper 2602 contract are expected to maintain today's structure tomorrow, Friday.
(2) Guangdong: On January 15, spot #1 copper cathode in Guangdong was quoted at a premium of 100-160 yuan/mt against the front-month contract, with an average premium of 130 yuan/mt, up 80 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was quoted at a premium of 10-30 yuan/mt against the front-month contract, with an average premium of 20 yuan/mt, up 60 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price for #1 copper cathode in Guangdong was 102,480 yuan/mt, down 1,060 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, while the average price for SX-EW copper was 102,370 yuan/mt, down 1,080 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Overall, on the contract rollover day, the price spread between futures contracts widened, prompting suppliers to actively hold prices firm, leading to higher spot premiums.
(3) Imported copper: On January 15, warrant prices were $30-46/mt, QP January, with the average price flat from the previous day; bill of lading (B/L) prices were $34-48/mt, QP February, with the average price flat from the previous day; EQ copper (CIF B/L) was quoted at -$2/mt to $10/mt, QP February, with the average price flat from the previous day. Quotations refer to cargoes arriving in mid-to-late January.
(4) Secondary copper: At 11:30 on January 15, the futures closing price was 101,310 yuan/mt, down 2,980 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the average spot premium/discount was 200 yuan/mt, up 60 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Today, the price of secondary copper raw materials remained unchanged MoM. The price of bare bright copper in Guangdong was 89,800-90,000 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap was 3,259 yuan/mt, down 2,920 yuan/mt MoM. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 1,950 yuan/mt. According to the SMM survey, copper prices continued to fluctuate rangebound. Many secondary copper rod enterprises reported buying the dip in secondary copper raw materials to fulfill historical orders. Meanwhile, end-users reported insufficient new orders due to high costs, which may lead to an early holiday at the end of January.
Price: On the macro front, after concerns over US tariffs eased, market focus shifted to economic data. Strong initial jobless claims data, coupled with intensive remarks from several US Fed officials emphasizing the priority of fighting inflation, maintaining tight policies, and low probability of near-term interest rate cuts, pushed the US dollar higher and put pressure on copper prices. Domestically, the market received positive support, with the State Grid's fixed asset investment during the 15th Five-Year Plan period expected to reach 4 trillion yuan, providing demand-side support. On the fundamentals, supply side, arrivals of imported materials remained low, while domestic supplies saw concentrated arrivals due to delivery impacts, resulting in a generally loose market supply. Demand side, the pullback in copper prices stimulated some just-in-time procurement from downstream users. Considering both bullish and bearish factors, copper prices were expected to maintain a narrow-range fluctuating trend today.
[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct investment research or decision-making advice. Clients should make decisions cautiously and not use this to replace their own independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.]