The most-traded SHFE tin contract rebounded with fluctuations after a sharp decline in the night session, while trading in the spot market stagnated. [SMM Tin Morning News]

January 16, 2026 SMM Tin Morning Brief:

Futures: The most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2602) fluctuated upward after a significant drop during the night session, and closed at 418,860 yuan/mt, down 3.27%.

Macro: (1) According to the latest Omdia research, the global smartphone market grew 4% YoY in Q4 2025, driven by seasonal demand recovery and improved inventory management, although some producers began to feel the impact of rising parts costs. Growth was mainly concentrated among leading manufacturers, including Apple and Samsung, which performed strongly in key regions. For the full year 2025, global smartphone shipments increased 2% YoY to 1.25 billion units. This reflects a steady but uneven market recovery: H1 performance was weak, while H2 performed better, supported by strong demand in emerging markets and positive responses to flagship model launches. However, rising memory costs and supply tightness have started to affect the market and limited shipment potential in Q4. The increasing cost pressure at year-end means that as we enter 2026, manufacturers will focus more on price control, profitability, and operational efficiency. (2) Data released by the CPCA showed that pickup truck sales reached 52,000 units in December 2025, up 8.8% YoY, hitting a near five-year high. From January to December 2025, pickup truck sales totaled 589,000 units, up 11.8% YoY. Pickup truck production in December 2025 was 48,000 units, up 5.2% YoY, at a medium-high level in nearly five years. From January to December 2025, pickup truck production reached 575,000 units, up 14% YoY.

Fundamentals: (1) Supply side: Most smelters are expected to maintain stable production in January. (2) Demand side: Downstream purchasing remained cautious, and high prices significantly suppressed actual consumption.

Spot market: Since the beginning of this week, SHFE tin futures have experienced nearly three limit-up moves in four trading days. The overall upward fluctuation in the metals sector continued to push up raw material prices, significantly dampening downstream purchase willingness. Currently, enterprises generally followed up with small volumes based on rigid demand, controlling inventory levels. Spot circulation saw no significant release; trading was sluggish amid high premiums, and some processing enterprises saw a notable decline in operating rates.

[Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, other data are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database model, and are for reference only, not constituting decision-making advice. The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct investment research or decision-making advice. Clients should make decisions cautiously and not use this to replace independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.]