the most-traded SHFE tin contract rose 8.3%, with warrants surging 2,400 mt on the delivery day, which may impact the market contango structure [SMM Tin Futures Brief Review]

On January 15, 2026, the most-traded SHFE tin contract SN2602 hovered at highs after a significant surge in the night session, opening at 420,000 yuan/mt and closing at 433,000 yuan/mt, with an intraday increase of 8.3%. The Shanghai Futures Exchange raised the price limit for tin futures contracts from 8% to 11% today, further amplifying market volatility risks. On the LME, three-month tin was quoted at $53,700, down 0.56%, with both SHFE and LME showing a consolidating trend.

Regionally, Shanghai was the main area for inventory growth, with warrants increasing by 1,905 mt to 3,269 mt, including a single-day increase of 1,803 mt at CMST Dachang; Guangdong continued its upward trend, adding 540 mt to 5,886 mt, with 830 Huangpu contributing 463 mt; Jiangsu saw a slight outflow of 26 mt. The sharp warrant increase on delivery day confirmed previous market expectations of smelters' concentrated shipments to delivery warehouses, and the daily warehouse inflows exceeding 2,400 mt are expected to ease recent spot liquidity tightness. The substantial warrant growth on delivery day validated SMM's earlier expectations of enterprise stockpiling for delivery, and future attention should be paid to warrant flows and their potential impact on spot premiums/discounts structure and inter-month price spreads.

In the spot market, SHFE tin has experienced nearly three limit-ups in four trading days this week, with the overall strong performance of the metal sector continuously pushing up raw material prices, significantly dampening downstream purchase willingness. Enterprises generally followed up with minimal rigid demand, controlling inventory scale. Spot circulation showed no significant release, with sluggish market transactions under high premium conditions, and some processing enterprises saw notable declines in operation rates. Given the intensified tin price fluctuations, it is advised that all parties in the industry chain prudently manage price risks and closely monitor the progress of Myanmar's export recovery, changes in tin concentrate TCs in Yunnan, and the impact of warrant transfers on market structure.