[SMM Chromium Daily Review] Positive Sentiment Spreads, Chromium Market Continues to Explore Price Increases

On January 15, 2026, the ex-factory price of high-carbon ferrochrome in Inner Mongolia was 8,350-8,500 yuan/mt (50% metal content); in Sichuan and north-west China, the ex-factory price was 8,400-8,550 yuan/mt (50% metal content); in east China, the offer price was 8,550-8,650 yuan/mt (50% metal content), up 25 yuan MoM from the previous trading day. For imported ferrochrome, the offer price for Indian high-carbon ferrochrome was 8,500-8,600 yuan/mt (50% metal content); the offer price for Kazakh high-carbon ferrochrome was 9,100-9,200 yuan/mt (50% metal content), flat MoM from the previous trading day.

During the day, offers in the ferrochrome market rose slightly, and the limit-up in the downstream stainless steel futures significantly boosted market confidence. Meanwhile, spot supply of ferrochrome for retail was tight, with some producers' orders scheduled until mid-February, and sentiment to hold prices firm was strong. Cost side, overseas market offers for chrome ore rose $12 to $280/mt, and spot prices still had upside room, while rising smelting costs continued to strengthen the bottom support for ferrochrome prices. Considering the relatively substantial profit margins in current stainless steel production, market expectations for the tender prices of mainstream steel mills in February improved. However, expectations for production cuts at stainless steel mills in February, combined with high ferrochrome production, limited the upside room for tender prices. In the short term, the ferrochrome market held up well, pending further developments in the downstream stainless steel market.

Raw material side, on January 15, 2026, spot offers for 40-42% South African fines at Tianjin Port were 54-55 yuan/mtu; for 40-42% South African raw ore, 50-52.5 yuan/mtu; for 46-48% Zimbabwean chrome concentrate, 57-58 yuan/mtu; for 48-50% Zimbabwean chrome concentrate ore, 58.5-59.5 yuan/mtu; for 40-42% Turkish chrome lump ore, 60-62 yuan/mtu; for 46-48% Turkish chrome concentrate ore, 63-64 yuan/mtu, up 0.5 yuan/mtu MoM from the previous trading day. Futures side, the latest offer for 40-42% South African fines was $280/mt, up $12 MoM.

During the day, the chrome ore market was filled with a strong bullish atmosphere, and rising futures prices further boosted market sentiment. Traders' willingness to hold prices firm and test higher prices increased, and low-priced material became somewhat scarce. With high ferrochrome production, plant purchasing inquiries became more active, and winter stockpiling demand gradually released. Limited port arrivals of South African raw ore but releasing demand supported higher offers; mainstream lump ore popularity slightly decreased, but scarce supply still supported firm prices; Zimbabwean fines saw frequent high offers due to combined effects of policies and restricted shipments; South African fines offers followed the rise, but plants still held some inventory, so they mostly adopted a wait-and-see approach. Futures side, this week, overseas market offers for 40-42% South African fines from the main mines rose sharply to $280/mt, supporting further increases in spot prices. Trader inquiries and purchases increased, and the psychological price level had been raised to $295/mt. It is expected that the chrome ore market will maintain a generally stable trend with slight strength in the short term.