The recent announcement by China's State Taxation Administration regarding the adjustment of export tax rebates for photovoltaic (PV) products has garnered significant attention across the global market. In this context, a critical question arises: Can non-Chinese enterprises leverage the theoretical increase in Chinese export costs to rapidly narrow the cost disparity with the Chinese supply chain and reshape the competitive landscape? Currently, there is a significant discrepancy in price and cost between PV products (primarily modules) manufactured in China and those produced in other regions. With the formal cancellation of the export tax rebate for Chinese PV products, the industry is focused on whether this price gap can be closed quickly. According to SMM preliminary statistics, a significant price difference of at least $0.05/W persists between Chinese export modules and those exported from non-Chinese regions such as Southeast Asia and India. The following analysis examines this issue through three dimensions: global supply and demand status, industrial technology strategy, and product manufacturing quality.

Previously, China's State Taxation Administration issued an announcement regarding the adjustment of the export tax rebate policy for PV products, a move that has garnered widespread attention in the global market. Against this backdrop, can non-Chinese enterprises seize this opportunity to rapidly narrow the cost gap with China's supply chain and reshape the competitive landscape by leveraging the theoretical increase in export costs of Chinese products? Currently, there is a significant gap in price and cost between PV products (primarily PV modules) manufactured in China and those produced in other regions. With the formal cancellation of China's export tax rebate policy for PV products, whether this gap can be quickly narrowed has become a core issue of concern for the global PV industry. According to incomplete statistics from SMM, a notable price spread of at least $0.05/W persists between modules exported from China and those from non-Chinese regions such as Southeast Asia and India. An in-depth analysis is conducted based on three dimensions: the current global supply-demand situation, industrial technology strategies, and product manufacturing quality.

[SMM Silicon-Based PV Morning Conference Summary] Silicon Metal: The silicon metal market moved sideways, with futures in the doldrums yesterday. SMM oxygen-blown #553 silicon in east China was quoted at 9,200-9,300 yuan/mt, and #441 silicon at 9,300-9,500 yuan/mt, both unchanged from the previous day. In the futures market, the most-traded silicon contract closed at 8,635 yuan/mt at the end of the session, down 120 yuan/mt from the previous day. Downstream stockpiling sentiment remained subdued ahead of the holiday, with market transactions driven by demand. Polysilicon: Polysilicon N-type recharging polysilicon was quoted at 51-58.5 yuan/kg, granular polysilicon at 50-58.5 yuan/kg, and the polysilicon price index at 54.53 yuan/kg. Coupled with the impact of export tax rebates, top-tier enterprises still hold prices firm, while lower prices in the market mainly come from some traders. Market participants remain cautious and engaged in a wait-and-see stance, with a leading upstream enterprise planning to halt production soon. The subsequent situation may need to await the next round of concentrated order signing.

Following the cancellation of China’s export tax rebates for photovoltaic products, the global solar trade landscape is undergoing significant restructuring. India, underpinned by massive domestic demand and unwavering policy commitment, is rapidly emerging as one of the most strategic markets outside of China. As a high-growth region with global competitiveness, India accelerated its energy transition throughout 2025, demonstrating remarkable market resilience. By November 2025, India’s cumulative PV installed capacity surpassed 130 GW. Notably, the market added approximately 35 GW in 2025 alone, positioning the country as a core driver of renewable energy expansion both regionally and globally.

[SMM Silicon-Based PV Morning Meeting Minutes: Export Tax Rebate Policy Introduced, Module Segment Sees Simultaneous Adjustments in Production Schedules and Prices] Over the weekend, N-type recharging polysilicon was quoted at 51.5–58.5 yuan/kg, with the N-type polysilicon price index at 54.86 yuan/kg, and granular polysilicon quoted at 50–58.5 yuan/kg. Polysilicon prices remained temporarily stable over the weekend. Due to the impact of last week's anti-monopoly related developments, the silicon market has cooled down, and downstream acceptance of polysilicon prices has decreased, with some high-inventory enterprises even planning to halt production. However, with the introduction of the export tax rebate policy on Friday, providing support for cell and module production in January–February, downstream players are already planning price increases, and the wait-and-see sentiment in the polysilicon market is intensifying, which may lead to certain positive effects in the near future.

The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration issued an announcement on adjusting the export tax rebate policy for PV and other products, with the following content: 1. Effective April 1, 2026, the VAT export tax rebate for PV and other products will be abolished. 2. From April 1, 2026, to December 31, 2026, the VAT export tax rebate rate for cell products will be reduced from 9% to 6%; starting January 1, 2027, the VAT export tax rebate for cell products will be abolished.

On January 8, a top-tier enterprise raised its silicon wafer quotations, with prices for 183.75-1.40 yuan/piece, 210R-1.55 yuan/piece, and 210N-1.85 yuan/piece