(Kitco News) – Gold prices will rise above $5,000 per ounce in the first quarter, with silver reaching $100 per ounce, but while silver and other industrial metals will likely continue to outperform, gold prices could take a significant hit later in 2026 as global tensions ease, according to analysts at Citi.
Strategists led by Kenny Hu raised their 0–3 month target for gold to $5,000 per ounce and silver to $100 per ounce on Tuesday, as the Wall Street firm projects the ongoing bull market for precious metals to continue through early 2026.
The strategists cited “heightened geopolitical risks, ongoing physical market shortages, and renewed uncertainty on Fed independence” as the reasons for the upgrade.
And while both metals have set new all-time highs in the new year, Citi reiterated its expectation that silver will outperform gold – though they expect the base metals to eventually steal the spotlight.
“Our longstanding call for silver to outperform and for the precious metals bull market to broaden into industrial metals and for industrial metals to take centre stage over the same periods has worked well,” strategists wrote.
The strategists also noted ongoing tightness in the physical market, particularly in silver and platinum group metals, saying that delays and uncertainty around the upcoming Critical Minerals Section 232 tariff decisions pose “large binary risks on trade flows and prices.”
Citi warned that in a high-tariff scenario, physical shortages could worsen – potentially triggering extreme price spikes – as metal is shipped into the U.S., but once there is tariff clarity, these metal inventories would likely flow back out, easing the physical tightness in the rest of the world and putting downward pressure on prices.
The strategists warned that “a collapse in silver prices due to S232-driven outflows could lead to a tactical selloff across other precious metals and base metals,” but stressed that they would “view that as a dip buying opportunity in a trend bull market,” because the underlying bullish drivers across the metals complex remain intact.
Citi’s updated outlook assumes geopolitical tensions will ease after Q1, reducing demand for precious metals later in the year, with gold most vulnerable to a downside correction. However, the bank continues to expect industrial metals, particularly aluminum and copper, to perform well in the latter half of 2026.
