[SMM Analysis] Short-term export growth of ternary cathode materials is expected to be limited.

This week, ternary cathode material prices continued to rise sharply. On the raw material side, nickel sulphate prices rose significantly due to cost support, cobalt sulphate and manganese sulphate prices rose slightly, while lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide also increased substantially. Currently, most producers have not yet finalised the final commercial terms for annual orders, and there remains a significant divergence between upstream and downstream parties regarding discount coefficients.

On the demand side, affected by the rapid short-term increase in raw material prices, downstream battery cell manufacturers generally adopted a wait-and-see attitude, with procurement focused on digesting existing inventory, maintaining only rigid restocking, and showing weak willingness for active stockpiling. As most producers initiate pre-Chinese New Year stockpiling in mid-to-late January, coupled with the impact of the policy to cancel export tax rebates for cathode materials expected to take effect, a certain degree of export rush for ternary cathode materials is anticipated, and subsequent orders are expected to grow. However, due to currently weak overseas demand, high raw material prices, and approximately two and a half months remaining until the policy officially takes effect, the short-term increase in exports is not expected to be particularly significant. The specific scale of the increase still requires close attention to the negotiation progress between cathode plants and overseas customers.