U.S.-Iran Tensions Fuel Safe-Haven Sentiment, LME Copper Closes Higher Overnight [SMM Copper Morning Meeting Minutes]

Thursday, January 15, 2026

Futures: LME copper opened at $13,176.5/mt overnight. It fluctuated considerably at the beginning of the session, dipping to $13,140/mt, then continued to fluctuate considerably. Approaching the end of the session, the price center gradually moved up, finally closing at $13,300/mt, also marking the intraday high, with a gain of 1.09%. Trading volume reached 33,800 lots, and open interest reached 324,000 lots, a decrease of 670 lots compared to the previous trading day, indicating bear position reduction. The most-traded SHFE copper contract 2603 opened at 104,350 yuan/mt overnight. It touched a high of 104,660 yuan/mt at the beginning of the session, then the price center moved straight down, probing a low of 103,290 yuan/mt, before fluctuating considerably and finally closing at 103,660 yuan/mt, a decrease of 0.49%. Trading volume reached 143,000 lots, and open interest reached 241,000 lots, a decrease of 553 lots compared to the previous trading day, indicating bull position reduction.

[SMM Copper Morning Conference Minutes] News:

(1) On January 14, according to data from the General Administration of Customs, imports of copper ore and its concentrates in December 2025 were 2.704 million mt, an increase of 7.2% YoY compared to December 2024. Cumulative imports for January-December 2025 were 31.031 million mt, an increase of 7.9% YoY compared to January-December 2024.

Spot:

(1) Shanghai: During the morning session on January 14, the SHFE copper 2601 contract showed a trend of opening high, probing lower, and then rebounding. It opened at 103,150 yuan/mt, slightly declined to 102,900 yuan/mt, then rebounded strongly, reaching highs above 104,850 yuan/mt twice during the rebound process. The closing price was 104,290 yuan/mt. The Contango spread between nearby months was between 440 yuan/mt and 330 yuan/mt. The import loss for the front-month SHFE copper contract was between 1,940 and 2,070 yuan/mt. Today is the last trading day for the SHFE copper 2601 contract. Spot prices are expected to start quoting against the next month's contract within a discount of 200-100 yuan/mt today. Spot premiums are expected to remain strong tomorrow. Spot premiums/discounts were suppressed by the widening spread, leading suppliers to reduce their willingness to sell. Overall prices are expected to remain high.

(2) Guangdong: Spot #1 copper cathode in Guangdong was at a premium of 20-80 yuan/mt against the front-month contract, with an average premium of 50 yuan/mt, up 30 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. SX-EW copper was quoted at a discount of 50-30 yuan/mt, with an average discount of 40 yuan/mt, up 30 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price for #1 copper cathode in Guangdong was 103,540 yuan/mt, up 1,385 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price for SX-EW copper was 103,450 yuan/mt, up 1,385 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot market: Inventory in Guangdong finally decreased, primarily due to reduced arrivals. Approaching delivery and the significantly widened spread increased traders' purchasing enthusiasm, but suppliers generally held back from selling, causing premiums to continue rising today.

(3) Imported copper: On January 14, warrant prices were $30-46/mt, QP January, with the average price down $2/mt from the previous trading day; B/L prices were $34-48/mt, QP February, with the average price down $2/mt from the previous trading day; EQ copper (CIF B/L) was -$2/mt to $10/mt, QP February, with the average price down $1/mt from the previous trading day. Quotations referred to cargoes arriving in mid-to-late January.

(4) Secondary copper: On January 14, copper scrap prices rose 400 yuan/mt MoM, with bare bright copper prices in Guangdong at 89,800-90,000 yuan/mt, up 400 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap was 6,179 yuan/mt, up 1,083 yuan/mt MoM. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 2,915 yuan/mt. According to the SMM survey, copper prices fluctuated sharply again, with almost no secondary copper rod enterprises offering quotes, and the copper scrap market was also chaotic, resulting in overall sluggish market transactions.

Prices: On the macro front, resilient US PPI data and escalating US-Iran tensions boosted risk-off sentiment, while weaker-than-expected CPI data and copper's strategic resource attributes supported market sentiment, keeping it relatively stable. Meanwhile, the White House issued a fact sheet on January 14, stating that after months of national security review, the Trump administration announced a temporary suspension of new tariffs on imported critical minerals, warranting attention to the nearby LME price spread between futures contracts. On the fundamentals side, arrivals of imported cargoes remained low, and suppliers, affected by the widening price spread between futures contracts, showed reduced willingness to sell, though overall supply remained relatively ample. Demand side, as copper prices stabilized, downstream buyers generally maintained just-in-time procurement, adopting a cautious wait-and-see attitude. Overall, copper prices are expected to fluctuate considerably today.

[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct investment research or decision-making advice. Clients should make decisions cautiously and not use this as a substitute for independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.]