Automobile Production and Sales Hit a New High Again in 2025, Exports Exceed 7 Million Units [SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment]

SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment for 1.15

Futures: The cast aluminum alloy 2603 contract opened at 23,395 yuan/mt overnight, fluctuated downward after opening and hit a bottom of 23,185 yuan/mt, then rebounded to a high of 23,550 yuan/mt, before pulling back to 23,425 yuan/mt by the close, up 45 yuan/mt or 0.19% from the previous close, with the increase mainly driven by bulls adding positions.

Spot-Futures Price Spread Daily: According to SMM data, on January 14, the theoretical premium of the SMM ADC12 spot price against the closing price of the most-traded cast aluminum alloy contract (AD2603) at 10:15 narrowed to 490 yuan/mt.

Industry Dynamics: According to CAAM, in 2025, auto production and sales totaled 34.531 million units and 34.4 million units respectively, hitting new historical highs and ranking first globally for 17 consecutive years. Among them, the passenger vehicle market grew steadily and, as the core component of auto consumption, effectively boosted the overall auto market growth; the commercial vehicle market recovered, with production and sales achieving growth of over 10% and returning to above 4 million units; new momentum accelerated, with NEV production and sales exceeding 16 million units, accounting for over 50% of domestic new auto sales, becoming the dominant force in China's auto market; foreign trade showed strong resilience, with auto exports exceeding 7 million units and NEV exports reaching 2.615 million units, taking exports to a new level.

Warrant Daily: SHFE data showed that on January 14, the total registered warrant volume for cast aluminum alloy was 68,861 mt, a decrease of 30 mt from the previous trading day. By region: Shanghai's total registered volume was 4,757 mt, unchanged; Guangdong's total registered volume was 21,994 mt, down 30 mt; Jiangsu's total registered volume was 12,498 mt, up 60 mt; Zhejiang's total registered volume was 22,912 mt, down 30 mt; Chongqing's total registered volume was 5,979 mt, up 60 mt; Sichuan's total registered volume was 691 mt, down 30 mt.

Aluminum Scrap Side: On Wednesday, the spot primary aluminum price rose again compared to the previous trading day, with the SMM A00 spot price closing at 24,670 yuan/mt, and aluminum scrap market prices generally followed the increase. Supply side, environmental protection-driven production restrictions in central China were lifted, but inventory levels of wrought aluminum alloy scrap remained saturated. Baled UBC was mainly offered at 17,900-18,300 yuan/mt (ex-tax), shredded aluminum tense scrap (priced based on aluminum content) was mainly offered at 19,550-20,050 yuan/mt (ex-tax). Regarding the price difference between A00 aluminum and aluminum scrap: on January 14, the price difference between A00 aluminum and mixed aluminum extrusion scrap free of paint in Foshan was 4,373 yuan/mt, and the price difference between A00 aluminum and shredded aluminum tense scrap was 3,029 yuan/mt. The aluminum scrap market is expected to hover at highs this week.

Silicon Metal Side: On January 14, SMM non-oxygen blown #553 silicon metal in east China was at 9,100-9,300 yuan/mt; oxygen-blown #553 at 9,200-9,300 yuan/mt; #521 at 9,300-9,500 yuan/mt; #441 at 9,300-9,500 yuan/mt; #421 at 9,500-9,800 yuan/mt; #421 for silicone use at 9,800-10,200 yuan/mt; #3303 at 10,200-10,500 yuan/mt. Silicon prices in Kunming, Huangpu Port, Tianjin, Shanghai, Xinjiang, Sichuan, and north-west China remained stable.

Overseas market: Current overseas ADC12 quotations rose slightly by $10 to the range of $2,880–2,890/mt, while the real-time profit margin for imports remained around 500 yuan/mt.

Summary: On Wednesday, aluminum prices continued their strong performance, with A00 prices rising by 370 yuan/mt in a single day to 24,670 yuan/mt, and SMM ADC12 prices increasing by 250 yuan/mt to 24,200 yuan/mt. The secondary aluminum market showed clear follow-up momentum, with mainstream quotations generally raised by 200-300 yuan/mt. However, the market's "nominal price without actual transactions" feature remained prominent, with actual transactions mainly driven by rigid demand and downstream acceptance of high prices limited. In terms of market drivers, cost support and a tight supply-demand pattern provided a floor for aluminum prices, but weak demand constrained further price increases. Overall, buoyed by short-term macro tailwinds, ADC12 prices are expected to hover at highs. Currently, bullish and bearish factors are intertwined, requiring close attention to changes in the supply-demand pattern and macro policy direction.

[Data source statement: Except for publicly available information, other data are derived by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database model, and are for reference only, not constituting decision-making advice.