The most-traded SHFE tin contract continued to rise during the night session, temporarily breaking through the 430,000 mark. [SMM Tin Morning News]

SMM Tin Morning Brief on January 15, 2026:

Futures: The most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2602) opened slightly higher and fluctuated upward during the night session, closed at 436,540 yuan/mt, up 9.18%, driven by strong macro sentiment.

Macro: (1) US President Trump stated that after the tariff investigation concludes, a 25% tariff will be imposed on chips imported into the US but not used in the domestic artificial intelligence industry. These tariffs target chips that "transit" through the US, are subsequently used in products such as data center servers, and are ultimately exported to other countries. "We will get 25% from the sale of these chips," Trump said on Wednesday, adding that he expects to generate billions of US dollars in revenue. Trump previously indicated last year that companies increasing investment in the US would also be exempt from chip tariffs, but he did not mention this potential exemption on Wednesday. (2) DRAM spot prices continued to climb, with trading volume remaining limited as suppliers and traders were reluctant to release inventory. The average price of mainstream DDR4 1Gx8 3200MT/s chips rose 9.64%. For NAND flash, spot prices have been rising recently. However, trading volume remained sluggish due to a combination of factors: a sharp increase in spot prices, weak consumer goods demand, and the upcoming factory shutdowns during the Chinese New Year. Although some buyers adopted a wait-and-see approach, spot traders optimistic about future price trends refused to lower prices to stimulate sales. This stalemate led to continued weakness in the spot market. This week, the average spot price of 512Gb TLC wafers increased 9.68% to $15.052.

Fundamentals: (1) Supply side: Most smelters' production is expected to remain stable in January. (2) Demand side: Downstream purchases were relatively cautious, with high prices significantly suppressing actual consumption.

Spot market: Against the backdrop of consecutive futures limit-ups, most suppliers held firm on prices pending sale, with downstream sporadic rigid demand following up. Most deep-processing enterprises have long faced high raw material costs and pressure on capital chains since December, greatly suppressing current purchase willingness. The weak supply-demand pattern is expected to persist before the Chinese New Year. As domestic consumption gradually weakens in the second half of January, midstream and downstream enterprises may enter the holiday state early in February.

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