[SMM Analysis] China's December copper concentrate import data guide the future supply-demand balance of copper concentrate in China.

According to data from the General Administration of Customs, China imported 2.704 million dmt of copper ore and its concentrates in December 2025, an increase of 7% month-on-month and 7.2% year-on-year. From January to December, China’s cumulative imports of cu cons reached 30.365 million dmt, a cumulative year-on-year increase of 7.8%. Throughout 2025, imports of copper concentrates repeatedly hit new historical highs. In April 2025, China imported 2.924 million dmt of cu cons, marking the highest monthly import volume on record. In August 2025, imports reached 2.759 million dmt, the second highest in history. In December 2025, imports amounted to 2.704 million dmt, ranking as the third highest monthly import volume on record.

As data on copper concentrate imports, anode copper imports, and China's electrolytic copper production become increasingly clearer, it is not difficult to derive the supply and demand balance sheet for copper concentrates in 2025. From the table, we can draw the following insights:

1. China has intensified its exploration efforts, increasing the potential for domestic copper concentrate production in the future. On October 23, at the 2025 China International Mining Conference, the Ministry of Natural Resources released the China Mineral Resources Report (2025). The report shows that in 2024, China’s geological exploration investment reached RMB 115.994 billion, achieving positive growth for the fourth consecutive year. Since the start of the 14th Five-Year Plan, cumulative investment in mineral exploration has approached RMB 450 billion, with 150 new mineral deposits discovered nationwide. In terms of mineral resources, exploration for bulk minerals such as copper, iron, and phosphorus has yielded significant results, with substantial growth in resource reserves. For copper, newly commissioned and expansion projects—such as the Chengmenshan Copper Mine, Wushan Copper Mine, Yatai Baishantang Copper Mine, Duobaoshan Copper Mine, Juno Copper Mine, Yulong Copper Mine, Julong Copper Industry, Hongnipo Copper Mine, and Duolong Copper Mine—are expected to contribute more potential to China’s copper concentrate production. SMM estimates that China’s copper concentrate production will increase from 1.97 million metal tons in 2025 to approximately 2.3 million metal tons by 2030.

2. China’s anode copper imports are expected to increase significantly in the future, helping to continuously rebalance the supply and demand of copper concentrates in China. The Kamoa-Kakula copper smelter officially began furnace drying on November 21, 2025, and is expected to start producing anode copper with 99.7% copper content by the end of the year. Kamoa-Kakula management anticipates that the on-site smelter will prioritize processing all concentrates produced by the Phase I, II, and III concentrators, with the remaining copper concentrates to be transported to the nearby Lualaba Copper Smelter in Kolwezi for processing. SMM believes that the anode copper produced by the Kamoa-Kakula copper smelter is likely to be sold primarily to the Chinese market, supplementing China’s copper raw material supply.

3. The importance of recycled copper raw materials is becoming increasingly prominent, serving as a key support for China’s electrolytic copper production. According to SMM, recycled copper raw materials are playing a growing role in supporting China’s electrolytic copper production, both in terms of anode copper and electrolytic copper derived from recycled sources. As shown in the table, the proportion of smelted recycled copper is expected to rise from 15.9% in 2025 to 21.3% in 2030. Recycled copper raw materials will become a focal point of market attention. Against the backdrop of increasingly expensive copper concentrate prices, the contribution of recycled copper raw materials to electrolytic copper production is expected to grow steadily.