Codelco Raises Copper Production Expectations, LME Copper Fluctuates and Closes Lower Overnight [SMM Copper Morning Meeting Minutes]

Wednesday, January 14, 2026
Futures: Overnight, LME copper opened at $13,185.5/mt, fluctuated considerably at the beginning of the session and touched a high of $13,313.5/mt, then fluctuated downward to a low of $13,105/mt, subsequently fluctuated considerably and finally closed at $13,156/mt, down 0.12%, with trading volume reaching 35,700 lots and open interest reaching 324,000 lots. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2603 contract opened at 103,780 yuan/mt, the center of copper prices moved straight up at the beginning of the session to a high of 104,610 yuan/mt, then fluctuated downward to a low of 102,880 yuan/mt, subsequently moved sideways and finally closed at 103,540 yuan/mt, up 0.29%, with trading volume reaching 138,700 lots and open interest reaching 227,000 lots, an increase of 7,047 lots from the previous trading day, showing an increase in positions by bulls.
[SMM Copper Morning Conference Summary] News:
(1) On January 13, Maximo Pacheco, Chairman of Codelco, stated on Monday that the company's copper production is expected to reach 1.344 million mt in 2026, about 10,000 mt higher than that in 2025. Pacheco made the remarks on the sidelines of the Future Minerals Forum in Riyadh, adding that Codelco's production reached 1.33 million mt in 2025, with copper output in December at 170,000 mt. In addition, the company also cooperated with other companies to produce 100,000 mt of copper.
Spot:
(1) Shanghai: During the morning session on January 13, the SHFE copper 2601 contract showed a "V-shape", opening at 102,860 yuan/mt and moving lower to a low of around 102,100 yuan/mt, then rebounding, and showing a high during the rebound process, touching a high of 103,700 yuan/mt, closing at 103,160 yuan/mt. The Contango spread between the front-month contract and the next-month contract ranged from 430 yuan/mt to 200 yuan/mt. The import loss for SHFE copper's front-month contract ranged from 1,680 yuan/mt to 1,930 yuan/mt. Looking ahead to tomorrow, as the delivery date approaches further, the spot premium structure is expected to remain supported, but intraday fluctuations may intensify, and it is expected to overall maintain at high levels.
(2) Guangdong: On January 13, spot #1 copper cathode in Guangdong was at a discount of 10 yuan/mt to a premium of 50 yuan/mt against the front-month contract, with the average premium at 20 yuan/mt, up 15 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was quoted at a discount of 80 yuan/mt to a discount of 60 yuan/mt, with the average discount at 70 yuan/mt, up 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of #1 copper cathode in Guangdong was 102,155 yuan/mt, down 1,010 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, and the average price of SX-EW copper was 102,065 yuan/mt, down 1,015 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Overall, traders' purchasing enthusiasm increased but downstream demand remained average, and overall trading improved compared to yesterday.
(3) Imported copper: On January 13, warrant prices were $32/mt to $48/mt, QP January, with the average price down $1/mt from the previous trading day; B/L prices were $36/mt to $50/mt, QP February, with the average price down $1/mt from the previous trading day; EQ copper (CIF B/L) was -$2/mt to $12/mt, QP February, with the average price down $1/mt from the previous trading day. Quotations referred to cargoes arriving in mid-to-late January.
(4) Secondary Copper: At 11:30 on January 13, the futures closing price was 102,850 yuan/mt, down 550 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average spot premium/discount was 60 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous day. Today, the price of copper scrap fell 100 yuan/mt MoM. The price of bare bright copper in Guangdong was 89,400-89,600 yuan/mt, down 100 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap was 5,096 yuan/mt, down 441 yuan/mt MoM. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 2,420 yuan/mt. According to an SMM survey, copper prices fluctuated sharply during the day, and many secondary copper rod enterprises quoted high prices, fearing that taking orders at low prices and purchasing copper scrap at high prices would cause unnecessary losses. However, market transactions were very limited.
Price: On the macro front, the US core CPI for December was slightly below expectations. Trump urged an interest rate cut, but the US Fed is expected to remain on hold. A stronger US dollar weighed on copper prices. Meanwhile, LME copper inventories fell sharply by 22% to a six-month low, providing fundamental support for copper prices. On the supply side, the spot copper cathode market showed structural tightness, with high-quality copper supplies particularly scarce. Supply of mainstream brands was relatively stable, and overall market supply was relatively loose. Demand side, as copper prices stabilized, downstream users cautiously released rigid demand, but overall maintained a wait-and-see stance. In summary, copper prices are expected to continue their upward trend today.
[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research decisions. Clients should make decisions cautiously and not use this to replace independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.]