[SMM Tin Midday Review: The Most-Traded SHFE Tin Contract Fluctuates at Highs, Closes Up 4.8% with Macro-Driven Support and Spot Cargo Suppression Coexisting]

On January 13, 2026, SHFE tin futures continued to fluctuate at highs overall. The most-traded contract SN2602 strengthened after opening in the morning, then pulled back before the market close, eventually closing at 381,800 yuan/mt, flat with the opening price, with a daily gain of 4.8%. LME tin futures also fluctuated, temporarily quoted at $48,400, up 0.41%. Recent active LME trends drove domestic prices; currently, overseas markets retreated after a rapid rise and shifted to range-bound consolidation, and SHFE tin is expected to follow into synchronized fluctuations. Global visible inventory remained at historically low levels, providing some structural support for tin prices. However, recent price increases were mainly driven by safe-haven sentiment triggered by geopolitical events, while fundamentals did not improve simultaneously. Caution is warranted against the risk of prices retreating from highs after macro sentiment cools.

In the spot market, high prices have significantly suppressed downstream purchase willingness. High raw material costs transmitted down the industry chain, with downstream enterprises generally maintaining just-in-time procurement strategies and showing weak restocking willingness. Spot circulation resources were limited; although the premium narrowed, the market overall showed a state of "nominal prices without actual transactions." Additionally, the traditional consumption off-season persisted, with weak orders for solder and other enterprises, indicating insufficient demand-side support. Future market focus should center on two aspects: supply-side recovery, including production resumptions at Myanmar mines and changes in Indonesia's export policies; and potential macro sentiment reversal—if geopolitical risks ease or the US dollar strengthens, both could pressure tin prices.