Macro sentiment is favorable, SHFE zinc rises [SMM Zinc Morning Comment]

 Overnight, the LME zinc contract opened at $3,157/mt. At the beginning of the session, it briefly dipped to a low of $3,156/mt, then fluctuated upward as bears exited the market, reaching a high of $3,165/mt toward the session's close. However, due to insufficient upward momentum, the price center pulled back slightly, ultimately settling at $3,222.5/mt, up $64.5/mt, or 2.07%. Trading volume decreased to 11,180 lots, while open interest increased by 397 lots to 233,000 lots. Overnight, LME zinc formed a large bullish candlestick with an upward price center. Uncertainty deepened as the Trump administration launched a criminal investigation into Fed Chairman Powell, sparking market concerns over the Federal Reserve's independence and the long-term outlook for the US dollar. The US dollar index closed lower, while geopolitical risks continued to increase, leading to broad gains in precious and non-ferrous metals. The macro market sentiment was positive, with high capital enthusiasm, supporting the rise in LME zinc prices.

Overnight, the most-traded SHFE zinc 2603 contract opened at 24,290 yuan/mt. Initially, it fluctuated along the daily average line, then dipped to a low of 24,060 yuan/mt. Subsequently, bulls increased their positions, and the contract fluctuated upward, reaching a high of 24,425 yuan/mt toward the session's close, ultimately settling at 24,320 yuan/mt. Trading volume decreased to 73,159 lots, while open interest increased by 2,455 lots to 104,000 lots. Overnight, SHFE zinc formed a small bullish candlestick with a long lower shadow. Fundamentally, there are no prominent contradictions at present, but macro sentiment remains positive, with high capital enthusiasm, leading to an upward shift in the price center of SHFE zinc.

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