TFM Copper Shipped Directionally to the US, LME Copper Fluctuated Overnight and Closed Higher [SMM Copper Morning Meeting Minutes]

Tuesday, January 13, 2026
Futures: LME copper opened overnight at $13,198.5/mt, fluctuated upward initially to touch a high of $13,323/mt, then the price center dropped sharply to probe a low of $12,990.5/mt, before fluctuating upward to finally close at $13,172/mt, a gain of 1.59%. Trading volume reached 35,700 lots, and open interest was 325,000 lots, down 446 lots from the previous session, mainly due to short covering. The most-traded SHFE copper 2602 contract opened overnight at 104,600 yuan/mt, rose initially to touch 104,790 yuan/mt, then the price center dropped sharply to probe a low of 101,810 yuan/mt, before fluctuating higher to finally close at 103,320 yuan/mt, a gain of 0.54%. Trading volume reached 129,400 lots, and open interest was 178,000 lots, down 4,781 lots from the previous session, showing short covering.
[SMM Copper Morning Conference Minutes] News:
(1) On January 12, following a market consultation at the end of 2025, Gécamines, the state mining company of the DRC, announced it exercised shareholder rights to directly purchase, for the first time, the entire 2026 production of 100,000 mt of copper (20% of total output) from the TFM copper-cobalt mine, in which it holds a 20% stake. It plans to ship this copper in batches directionally to the US market during the 2026 fiscal year. This move aims to implement specific expectations under the recent agreements between the DRC and the US.
Spot:
(1) Shanghai: During the morning session on January 12, the SHFE copper 2601 contract showed a trend of narrowing fluctuations. It opened at 103,200 yuan/mt, rose to touch a high of 103,600 yuan/mt, pulled back slightly and fluctuated around 102,900 yuan/mt, with the fluctuation range gradually narrowing. By the close, the price rose to 103,400 yuan/mt. The contango spread between the front-month and next-month contracts ranged from 310 yuan/mt to 140 yuan/mt. The import loss for the front-month SHFE copper contract was between 1,020 yuan/mt and 1,080 yuan/mt. For today, as the delivery date approaches, the premium structure is expected to persist, but further upside room is constrained by downstream acceptance and the progress of warrant registration. If the spread does not narrow significantly, spot premiums may fluctuate at highs.
(2) Guangdong: On January 12, spot #1 copper cathode in Guangdong was at a discount of 20 yuan/mt to a premium of 30 yuan/mt against the front-month contract, with an average premium of 5 yuan/mt, down 5 yuan/mt from the previous day. SX-EW copper was quoted at a discount of 90-70 yuan/mt, with an average discount of 80 yuan/mt, up 10 yuan/mt from the previous day. The average price for #1 copper cathode in Guangdong was 103,165 yuan/mt, up 3,330 yuan/mt from the previous day. The average price for SX-EW copper was 103,080 yuan/mt, up 3,325 yuan/mt from the previous day. Overall, despite a significant inventory increase, suppliers were reluctant to cut prices sharply ahead of the delivery date, leading to only a slight drop in premiums today.
(3) Imported copper: On Jan 12, warrant prices were $32-50/mt, QP January, with the average price down $1/mt from the previous trading day; B/L prices were $36-52/mt, QP February, with the average price down $2/mt from the previous trading day; EQ copper (CIF B/L) -$2/mt to $14/mt, QP February, with the average price down $1/mt from the previous trading day. Quotations referred to cargoes arriving in the first and middle ten days of January.
(4) Secondary copper: At 11:30 on Jan 12, the futures closing price was 103,400 yuan/mt, up 2,670 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the average spot premiums/discounts were 60 yuan/mt, up 105 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Today, copper scrap prices rose 1,500 yuan/mt MoM; bare bright copper prices in Guangdong were 89,500-89,700 yuan/mt, up 1,500 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap was 5,537 yuan/mt, up 1,136 yuan/mt MoM. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 2,760 yuan/mt. According to the SMM survey, as copper prices rebounded sharply, many secondary copper rod enterprises suspended quotations, mainly due to difficulties in procuring raw materials for secondary copper rod and producing spot cargo. Therefore, many secondary copper rod enterprises suspended quotations today.
Prices: On the macro front, the Trump administration launched a criminal investigation into Fed Chairman Powell. Although the White House denied giving instructions, the political uncertainty and concerns about the Fed's independence caused the US dollar to fall, benefiting copper prices. Meanwhile, Trump announced a 25% tariff on any country trading with Iran. On the fundamentals side, imported supply remained low, while domestic supply was relatively ample. Demand side, downstream players reacted cautiously to the rapid surge in copper prices, mostly adopting a wait-and-see approach. Inventory side, as of Monday, Jan 12, SMM's copper inventories in mainstream regions across China increased 7.16% WoW from last Thursday. Overall, copper prices are expected to continue rising today.
[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct investment research or decision-making advice. Clients should make decisions cautiously and not use this to replace their own independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.]