Sudden Geopolitical Events Boost Market Risk-Off Sentiment, Tin Prices Expected to Hover at Highs in the Short Term [SMM Tin Morning Meeting Minutes]

SMM Tin Morning Meeting Minutes, January 12, 2026

On the macro front, sudden geopolitical events briefly boosted market risk aversion sentiment, but the sustainability of such events was limited, and market sentiment gradually returned to rationality. The domestic tin market overall presented a pattern of stable supply and demand but suppressed demand. In terms of supply, production at most smelters was expected to remain stable, and the supply side was relatively steady. On the demand side, downstream enterprises such as solder manufacturers generally adopted a cautious approach to procurement; tin prices fluctuating at highs significantly suppressed actual consumption, with most enterprises only making just-in-time procurement and showing low willingness for active stockpiling. However, when prices fluctuated downward, it could stimulate rigid procurement demand from some downstream enterprises, leading to a phased recovery in spot market transactions. From a policy perspective, China continues to promote the development of industries such as artificial intelligence, high-end chips, and NEVs. As these sectors are important downstream consumers of tin metal, their medium and long-term demand prospects provide potential support for the market. Overall, tin prices are expected to hover at highs in the short term, with price fluctuations significantly influenced by the interplay between macro sentiment and rigid demand in the spot market. Investors are advised to closely monitor domestic and overseas macro policy developments and changes in spot market transactions, pay attention to the suppressive effect of high prices on demand, focus on phased opportunities arising from downstream restocking during price pullbacks, and remain vigilant against short-term volatility risks caused by unexpected events.