PPC Japan Copper Premium Hits Record High, LME Copper Fluctuated and Closed Higher on Friday [SMM Copper Morning Meeting Minutes]

Monday, January 12, 2026
Futures: On Friday evening, LME copper opened at $12,946/mt. At the beginning of the session, it fluctuated upward, touching a high of $13,039/mt. Subsequently, the center of copper prices gradually moved downward, probing a low of $12,907/mt, followed by considerable fluctuations before finally closing at $12,965.5/mt, a gain of 2.07%. Trading volume reached 27,100 lots, and open interest reached 325,000 lots, an increase of 783 lots compared to the previous trading day, primarily driven by long position increases. On Friday evening, the most-traded SHFE copper contract 2602 opened at 101,910 yuan/mt. At the start of the session, it climbed to 102,660 yuan/mt. Afterwards, the price center moved down, testing a low of 101,520 yuan/mt, then fluctuated higher to finally close at 102,220 yuan/mt, a gain of 1.93%. Trading volume reached 99,500 lots, and open interest stood at 185,000 lots, a decrease of 3,578 lots compared to the previous trading day, reflecting short position reductions.
[SMM Copper Morning Conference Minutes] News:
(1) On January 9, Pan Pacific Copper (PPC) proposed a copper premium for its domestic Japanese customers for 2026 as high as $330/mt last month, hitting a record high. The company is Japan's largest refined copper supplier. This spot delivery price is more than three times the 2025 level of $88, and is a premium on top of the three-month LME copper price, reflecting market supply and demand fundamentals. It also covers costs, including shipping and taxes.
Spot:
(1) Shanghai: On the morning of January 9, the SHFE copper 2601 contract showed a trend of probing lows followed by a rebound, accompanied by high-level fluctuations. It opened at 100,000 yuan/mt and continued to fall, twice probing below 99,100 yuan/mt, then continuously climbed to 101,200 yuan/mt. After a slight pullback, it fluctuated around 100,700 yuan/mt, and by the close returned to 100,730 yuan/mt. The Contango spread between the front-month and the next month's contracts ranged from 70 yuan/mt to 200 yuan/mt. The import loss for the front-month SHFE copper contract was between 770-900 yuan/mt. Looking ahead to this week, the Shanghai area remains in a state of continuous inventory buildup. The persistent discount situation has led suppliers to convert most of their spot cargo into futures delivery warrants. With the delivery date approaching next week, the discount is expected to narrow further.
(2) Guangdong: On January 9, spot #1 copper cathode in Guangdong was at a discount of 10 yuan/mt to a premium of 30 yuan/mt against the front-month contract, with an average premium of 10 yuan/mt, up 5 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. SX-EW copper was quoted at a discount of 80 yuan/mt to 60 yuan/mt, with an average discount of 70 yuan/mt, up 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price for Guangdong's #1 copper cathode was 99,835 yuan/mt, down 2,685 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price for SX-EW copper was 99,755 yuan/mt, down 2,680 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Overall, copper prices once fell below the 100,000 yuan mark, prompting downstream users to seize the opportunity for small restocking, leading to a slight improvement in overall trading activity.
(3) Imported copper: On January 9, warrant prices were $34-50/mt, QP January, with the average price flat from the previous trading day; B/L prices were $38-54/mt, QP February, with the average price flat from the previous trading day; EQ copper (CIF B/L) was -$2-16/mt, QP February, with the average price flat from the previous trading day. Quotations referred to cargoes arriving in the first half of January.
(4) Secondary copper: At 11:30 on January 9, the futures closing price was 101,730 yuan/mt, down 2,050 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the average spot premiums/discounts were -65 yuan/mt, down 15 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Today, the price of copper scrap fell 800 yuan/mt MoM. The price of bare bright copper in Guangdong was 88,500-88,700 yuan/mt, down 800 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap was 4,834 yuan/mt, down 1,191 yuan/mt MoM. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 2,320 yuan/mt. According to the SMM survey, copper prices rebounded on Friday, prompting many copper scrap traders to raise prices. Sales at secondary copper rod enterprises also improved as copper prices bottomed out and rebounded, with many completing their sales by noon. However, amid continuously rising copper scrap prices, secondary copper rod enterprises were not in a hurry to make purchases.
Prices: On the macro front, US non-farm payrolls data for December fell short of expectations and previous data was revised downward, coupled with US Fed officials' statements further suppressing short-term expectations for interest rate cuts; the Trump administration engaged in diplomatic contacts with Venezuela, promoting the return of US oil capital to the country's market. Meanwhile, the market bet that emerging sectors would boost future copper demand, and overall warm sentiment drove copper prices higher. On the fundamentals side, the spot market for copper cathode showed structural differentiation in supply, with tight availability of some brands. At the same time, suppliers generally converted spot cargo into delivery warrants, exacerbating the tightness of marketable resources. Demand side, copper prices stabilized and purchasing sentiment recovered slightly, but overall improvement remained limited. Overall, copper prices are expected to continue their upward trend today.
[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct investment research or decision-making advice. Clients should make decisions cautiously and not use this to replace their own independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.]