[SMM Analysis]ADC12 Price Soars to a Multi-Year High After New Year's Day, While Market Activity Declines

To All Relevant Enterprises and Market Participants: In accordance with the relevant policy requirements of the European Union's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), which officially entered its charging phase on January 1, 2026, with aluminum products included in the first batch of covered goods, SMM has decided to adjust the premium price for European Rotterdam P1020A aluminum ingot, duty-paid. This adjustment, approved by the SMM Price Assessment Committee, aims to accurately reflect the actual trade costs in the European aluminum ingot market post-CBAM implementation and to ensure the fairness, timeliness, and reference value of SMM prices. The specific details of the announcement are as follows:

[SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting Minutes: Funds' Catch-up Rally Ends, Aluminum Prices Face Short-term Pullback Pressure] Overall, as market sentiment cools and earlier profit-taking funds begin to exit, short-term aluminum prices lack further upward momentum. SMM aluminum prices are expected to retreat from highs in the short term.

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Aluminum Prices Stop Rising and Correct, Supply Shortage Continues to Support Alloy Prices] Aluminum prices stopped rising and corrected, with the SMM A00 aluminum price falling by 140 yuan/mt to 24,000 yuan/mt, while the SMM ADC12 price remained temporarily stable at 23,700 yuan/mt. Although the A00 aluminum price experienced a slight correction, it remained above 24,000 yuan/mt. Most secondary aluminum market quotations held steady in the morning, but in the afternoon, some manufacturers followed the sharp decline in futures, dropping prices by 100-200 yuan/mt. Amid the falling price trend, downstream buyers exhibited a strong wait-and-see sentiment, with only limited restocking for urgent needs, resulting in sluggish transactions. The current secondary aluminum market is influenced by a mix of bullish and bearish factors: cost support and tight supply provide a floor for prices, but weak downstream demand and fear of high prices exert downward pressure. It is expected that ADC12 prices will show a high-level correction trend in the short term.

[SMM Analysis]ADC12 Weekly Increase Exceeds 1,200 yuan/mt, Market Competition Intensifies Amid Caution Over Correction Risks

[SMM Aluminum Price Weekly Review: Rational Return After Short-Term Boost from Venezuela Incident, Tug-of-War Between Longs and Shorts Intensifies in Near Term]

[SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting Minutes: Funds Take Profits and Exit, Aluminum Prices Retreat from Highs] Overall, the current fundamentals—with consumption under pressure and inventory continuing to accumulate—are exerting some downward pressure on aluminum prices. However, strong macro policy expectations and geopolitical risks are providing solid support for a rise in aluminum prices. SMM expects aluminum prices to fluctuate at highs in the short term.