[SMM Manganese Ore Weekly Review] Port Inquiry Activity Slightly Declined, Manganese Ore Market Consolidates

January 9 - News:

Northern ports: South African high-iron 30-32.1 yuan/mtu, up 2.64% from pre-holiday; South African semi-carbonate 35.5-36 yuan/mtu, up 4.38%; Gabonese lumps 43-43.6 yuan/mtu, up 0.23%; 46% Australian lumps 43.9-44.4 yuan/mtu, up 1.15%; South African medium-iron 38.1-38.6 yuan/mtu, up 2.68%.

Southern ports: South African high-iron 31.8-32.3 yuan/mtu, flat from pre-holiday; South African semi-carbonate 35.3-36 yuan/mtu, up 0.56% MoM; Gabonese lumps 41.5-42 yuan/mtu, flat; 46% Australian lumps 41.5-42.2 yuan/mtu, up 0.72%; South African medium-iron 38.9-39.4 yuan/mtu, up 3.98%.

Post-holiday, manganese ore market prices continued their firm trend, with spot transaction prices for various grades rising by different margins this week.

Supply side, spot pricing this week was anchored to January 2026 overseas futures offers, while expectations for price changes were guided by February 2026 overseas futures offers. Overseas market offers were strong, with January 2026 futures offers rising first; major miners simultaneously raised their February offers to China. Consolidated Minerals Ltd. (CML) offered Australian lumps at $5.2/mtu, up $0.2/mtu MoM, while Compagnie Minière de l'Ogooué (Comilog) offered Gabonese lumps for February shipment to China at $4.9/mtu, also up $0.2/mtu MoM. The rise in overseas offers provided solid support for the increase in domestic manganese ore spot prices.

Demand side showed signs of recovery, with inquiry activity in both north and south China markets strengthening compared to pre-holiday levels. Futures side, the recent strong performance of SiMn futures created a warm market sentiment, effectively boosting inquiry enthusiasm for raw material manganese ore from SiMn enterprises. Spot market performance was mixed. In the north, SiMn producers maintained a stable procurement pace, providing sustained support for manganese ore demand; in the south, alloy plants continued a "purchase as needed" strategy, pushing manganese ore purchase prices slightly higher under a hand-to-mouth model.

Inventory side showed structural characteristics, with a clear accumulation trend at Qinzhou Port. The main reason was the low operating rate of downstream alloy plants in the south China market, leading to weak raw material procurement demand. The rate of manganese ore arrivals at the port exceeded the port cargo pick-up rate, gradually raising manganese ore inventory levels.

Overall, current domestic manganese ore market prices are fluctuating at highs. In the short term, supply support from rising overseas market offers remains, and manganese ore prices are expected to continue their firm trend. However, two potential risks warrant attention: first, weak demand in south China has not improved, and second, port inventory pressure is gradually accumulating. These factors may create a negative feedback effect, thereby suppressing manganese ore prices and triggering a pullback.