[SMM Survey Daily Briefing] 20260109

[SMM Daily Coking Coal and Coke Briefing]

Coking Coal Market:

Low-sulphur coking coal in Linfen is offered at 1,500 yuan/mt. Low-sulphur coking coal in Tangshan is offered at 1,480 yuan/mt.

Raw material fundamentals, some previously suspended mines have gradually resumed operations, leading to an increase in supply. The coking coal and coke futures pulled back on Friday, and market sentiment began to weaken, with some coal types continuing to post compensatory declines. Furthermore, downstream coking and steel enterprises are currently experiencing poor profitability, and there is no large-scale, concentrated restocking activity. Coking coal prices are still expected to have some room for decline next week.

Coke Market:

The nationwide average price for first-grade metallurgical coke - dry quench is 1,735 yuan/mt. The nationwide average price for quasi-first-grade metallurgical coke - dry quench is 1,595 yuan/mt. The nationwide average price for first-grade metallurgical coke - wet quench is 1,390 yuan/mt. The nationwide average price for quasi-first-grade metallurgical coke - wet quench is 1,300 yuan/mt.

Supply side, overall production levels at coking enterprises remain temporarily stable, and due to improved sales, individual coking enterprises have increased production. Demand side, steel mill profitability has been restored, and some mills have completed maintenance and begun to resume production, leading to a gradual increase in daily average hot metal output, creating rigid demand for coke. However, finished steel prices are under pressure again, and steel mills' desire to bargain down coke prices persists. In summary, cost support is not solid, demand performance is weakening, and there are still expectations for a fifth round of coke price declines. The coke market is expected to operate generally stable with a slight fall next week.[SMM Steel]