Copper prices broke through the $13,000/mt mark early in the week, with LME copper reaching a mid-week high of $13,387.5/mt before fluctuating downward. SHFE copper also retreated from highs to the 101,000 yuan/mt level. Macro perspective, eased US-Venezuela tensions slowed market nervousness; December ADP employment increased slightly but fell short of expectations. Market focus remained on the January 9 non-farm payrolls data. After precious metal prices pulled back, bullish sentiment for copper and nonferrous metals also eased, with LME awaiting further macro cues. Domestically, China's December CPI recovered slightly YoY, while PPI remained in contraction territory, though deflationary pressures marginally slowed.
Fundamentals, failed negotiations at Chile's Mantoverde copper mine extended the strike, intensifying concerns over tight supply. After the New Year holiday, spot trading for copper concentrates remained inactive, with transaction prices fluctuating around the mid-negative $40s/mt. Only trader activity for copper cathode was relatively active, while negative feedback from consumers remained evident. With exports expected to stay high in January, social inventory continued to build up.
Next week, copper prices falling to 100,000 yuan/mt failed to mask weak consumption, and rumors of delayed US copper tariffs limited upward momentum. LME copper is expected to fluctuate between $12,400-12,700/mt, while SHFE copper may trade between 97,500-101,000 yuan/mt. Spot side, with the SHFE copper 2401 contract nearing delivery, traders anticipated concentrated shipments to warehouses due to the high Contango price spread between futures contracts. Spot premiums are expected to fluctuate slightly with the spread. Spot prices against the SHFE copper 2601 contract are forecast between a discount of 100 yuan/mt and a premium of 100 yuan/mt.
