Supply Recovery Meets Demand Gap, Both Factory and Social Inventories Increase

Published: Jan 9, 2026 10:03

Source: SMM

Save

This week's total rebar inventory was 4.1708 million mt, up 204,800 mt WoW, an increase of 5.16% (previous: -4.07%), and up 289,100 mt YoY, an increase of 7.45% (previous: +4.62%).

This week, building materials inventory shifted from decline to growth, with both factory and social inventories accumulating. Supply side, annual maintenance work on blast furnaces at some domestic steel mills has been successively completed, and the resulting hot metal increment was released this week. According to an SMM survey, the operating rate of blast furnaces at 242 steel mills was 85.99% this week, up 0.84 percentage points WoW. Demand side, the market was closed for the New Year's Day holiday, traders' shipments basically stalled, normal social inventory warehouse withdrawals were interrupted, and coupled with reduced logistics and transportation efficiency around the holiday, further hindering inventory circulation, building materials inventory accumulated.

This week's total rebar inventory was 4.1708 million mt, up 204,800 mt WoW, an increase of 5.16% (previous: -4.07%), and up 289,100 mt YoY, an increase of 7.45% (previous: +4.62%).

This week's rebar in-factory inventory was 1.4759 million mt, up 64,700 mt WoW, a WoW increase of 4.58% (previous: +0.71%), and up 225,200 mt YoY, a YoY increase of 18% (previous: +16.78%). This week, annual maintenance on blast furnaces and supporting building materials rolling lines at some steel mills ended, and production has now gradually resumed, driving a rebound in building materials production and increased market supply, leading to continued accumulation of factory inventory this week.

This week's rebar social inventory was 2.6949 million mt, up 140,100 mt WoW, a WoW increase of 5.48% (previous: -6.52%); and up 63,900 mt YoY, a YoY increase of 2.43% (previous: -1.07%). During the New Year's Day holiday, the market was closed, traders' shipments basically stalled, and coupled with reduced logistics and transportation efficiency around the holiday, further slowing inventory circulation and turnover. Under the dual effects of persistently weak demand and obstructed circulation, social inventory shifted from decline to growth this week.

Looking ahead, with the New Year's Day holiday over, traders have gradually resumed shipments, logistics and transportation are smooth, and previously accumulated inventory is gradually entering circulation. However, considering the persistent low temperatures in the north, outdoor construction projects have largely halted, and downstream site stockpiling willingness has fallen to a low level. Although construction conditions are relatively lenient in south China, actual purchases are mostly for rigid demand due to funding pressures, making a significant demand surge difficult. Additionally, based on the average inventory buildup period in previous years, sustained inventory buildup is expected to begin 4 weeks before the holiday, so inventory pressure will become prominent from late January.

Steel

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM‘s internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

For any inquiries or to learn more information, please contact: lemonzhao@smm.cn

For more information on how to access our research reports, please contact:service.en@smm.cn

Related News

4 mins ago

Risks in the Ferrous Metals Sector Began to Accumulate [SMM Steel Industry Chain Weekly Report]

This week, ferrous metals were in the doldrums. The main logic during the week remained weakening cost support. On Tuesday, Iran proposed charging transit fees for the Strait of Hormuz, while Trump made conciliatory remarks, saying that “even if the Strait of Hormuz remained largely closed, he would still be willing to end military action against Iran.” Market expectations for tighter crude oil supply weakened, and declines in the energy sector dragged down the coal sector, weakening the cost-side logic. During the week, inventories of the five major steel products continued to decline, but apparent demand remained at a low level for the same period in previous years, providing limited fundamental-driven momentum to futures. In the spot market, purchasing interest was average, mainly focused on restocking at low prices. Spot prices were relatively firm, and the spot-futures price spread widened somewhat......

4 mins ago

6 mins ago

MMi Daily Iron Ore Report (April 3)

Today, the DCE iron ore fluctuated in the doldrums, with the most-traded contract I2605 eventually closing at 799.5 yuan/mt, down 0.50% from the previous trading session. Spot prices fell by about 2-5 yuan from the previous trading day. Traders were moderately active in offering quotes, while steel mills mainly restocked to meet rigid demand; as of now, spot market transactions were mediocre.

6 mins ago

29 mins ago

[SMM Daily Hot-Rolled Coil Trading] Spot Trading Moved Sideways

[SMM Daily Hot-Rolled Coil Trading] On April 3, the total daily trading volume of hot-rolled coil at sample enterprises in four SMM cities (Shanghai, Lecong, Tianjin, and Ningbo) was 14,410 mt, down 70 mt day on day, or 0.5%, up 30.71% YoY on a calendar basis and up 12.31% YoY on a lunar calendar basis.

29 mins ago