Post-Holiday Copper Prices Retreat After Rapid Rise, Downstream Procurement Increases, Spot Copper Premiums Expected to Fluctuate and Rise Next Week [SMM Southern China Copper Cathode Spot Weekly Review]

SMM January 8 News:

Guangdong Region: This week, premiums and discounts in the region bottomed out and rebounded. After the New Year's Day holiday, suppliers' capital was no longer tight, and they actively held prices firm. Coupled with a significant pullback in copper prices, downstream users began restocking, leading to overall trading activity that was noticeably better than before the New Year's Day holiday. As of Thursday, high-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 30 yuan/mt, up 160 yuan/mt from before the holiday; standard-quality copper was quoted at a discount of 20 yuan/mt, up 180 yuan/mt from before the holiday; SX-EW copper was quoted at a discount of 80 yuan/mt, up 190 yuan/mt from before the holiday. On Thursday, the price spread for standard-quality copper premiums and discounts between Shanghai and Guangdong was 160 yuan/mt higher in Guangdong. The relatively small spread meant there was no inter-regional goods transfer. According to SMM statistics, as of Thursday, total warehouse inventory in Guangdong was 42,900 mt, an increase of 6,700 mt from before the holiday. Total warrants amounted to 21,300 mt, an increase of 5,600 mt from last Thursday. Specifically: warehouse arrivals this week were 15,200 mt/week, down 3,500 mt/week WoW, but higher than the annual average (14,000 mt/week). During the New Year's Day holiday, downstream production halted, and suppliers diverted goods to warehouses. Warehouse withdrawals were 7,600 mt/week, up 1,500 mt/week WoW, but significantly lower than the annual average (14,200 mt/week), as many downstream users halted production during the holiday, leading to weak consumption.

Looking ahead to next week, copper prices are expected to pull back, downstream procurement is expected to increase, inventory is forecast to decline, and premiums are anticipated to fluctuate and trend higher.

(The above information is based on market data collection and comprehensive assessment by the SMM research team. The information provided herein is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct investment research advice. Clients should make decisions cautiously and not use this information to replace their own independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.)