Ukraine's 2026 Copper Scrap Export Quota Set at Zero, LME Copper Plunged Overnight [SMM Copper Morning Meeting Minutes]

Thursday, January 8, 2026
Futures: LME copper opened at $13,117/mt overnight. After hitting a high of $13,141/mt early in the session, its price center gradually moved downward, hitting a bottom of $12,833/mt, and finally closed at $12,866/mt, down 2.93%. Trading volume decreased by 3,549 lots to 44,000 lots, and open interest decreased by 8,237 lots to 329,000 lots, mainly due to long liquidation. The most-traded SHFE copper 2602 contract opened at 100,320 yuan/mt overnight, hit a high of 103,560 yuan/mt at opening, then its price center moved downward to a bottom of 101,350 yuan/mt, and finally closed at 102,030 yuan/mt, down 1.98%. Trading volume decreased by 187,000 lots to 143,000 lots, and open interest decreased by 5,778 lots to 210,000 lots, also mainly due to long liquidation.
[SMM Copper Morning Conference Minutes] News:
(1) On January 7, the Ukrainian government announced that the export quotas for copper scrap and steel scrap for 2026 would be zero, aiming to protect local industries and comply with the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). This policy is expected to lead major buyers like Turkey to seek alternative supply sources.
Spot:
(1) Shanghai: During the morning session on January 7, the SHFE front-month copper 2601 contract fell from around 104,500 yuan/mt, tested below 103,000 yuan/mt twice, and recovered to above 103,700 yuan/mt near the morning close. The price spread between futures contracts ranged from a contango of 200 yuan/mt to a contango of 150 yuan/mt. The import loss for SHFE front-month copper narrowed to between 700-900 yuan/mt. Looking ahead to today, spot transactions are expected to continue at a discount, with the lower limit of the discount likely to narrow as the delivery date approaches.
(2) Guangdong: On January 7, spot #1 copper cathode in Guangdong was traded at a discount of 40 yuan/mt to a premium of 20 yuan/mt against the front-month contract, with an average discount of 10 yuan/mt, down 25 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. SX-EW copper was quoted at a discount of 120 yuan/mt to a discount of 100 yuan/mt, with an average discount of 110 yuan/mt, down 20 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of #1 copper cathode in Guangdong was 103,305 yuan/mt, down 510 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, while the average price of SX-EW copper was 103,205 yuan/mt, down 505 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Overall, both copper prices and inventory declined, downstream purchases increased slightly, and overall trading was slightly better than the previous day.
(3) Imported copper: On January 7, warrant prices were $34-44/mt, QP January, with the average price flat from the previous trading day; B/L prices were $38-50/mt, QP February, with the average price flat from the previous trading day; EQ copper (CIF B/L) was -$4/mt to $12/mt, QP February, with the average price flat from the previous trading day. Quotations referred to cargoes arriving in early to mid-January.
(4) Secondary copper: At 11:30 on January 7, the futures closing price was 103,780 yuan/mt, down 120 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average spot premium/discount was -50 yuan/mt, down 30 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Today, the price of recycled copper raw materials remained unchanged MoM. The price of bare bright copper in Guangdong was 89,300-89,500 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap was 6,025 yuan/mt, down 150 yuan/mt MoM. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 3,340 yuan/mt. According to the SMM survey, the upward momentum of copper prices slowed down, and the purchase willingness of secondary copper rod enterprises recovered somewhat. However, enterprises indicated that current raw material purchases are mainly for producing previous orders, with some secondary copper rod enterprises even having historical order transaction prices at 85,000 yuan/mt.
Price: On the macro front, the negotiations over the Mantoverde copper mine incident in Chile yielded no results, and the strike will continue, intensifying market concerns about tight supply. US ADP employment data for December increased by 47,000, but the market is more focused on the non-farm payroll report to be released on Friday to gauge future policy trends. Supply side, spot supply of copper cathode remains ample; demand side, consumption continues to be weak, suppressed by the surge in copper prices, with the overall market maintaining an oversupply pattern. Overall, due to supply deficit concerns, copper prices are expected to show an upward trend today.
[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research decisions. Clients should make decisions cautiously and not use this to replace independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.]