Silicon Metal Continues to See Negotiations, Silicone Monomer Enterprises Maintain Sentiment to Hold Prices Firm [SMM Silicon-Based PV Morning Meeting Minutes]

SMM Jan. 7:

Silicon Coal

Prices: Silicon coal prices held steady this week, with the average price of Xinjiang non-caking silicon coal at about 855 yuan/mt, the price range of caking silicon coal at about 1,300-1,650 yuan/mt, the average price of Shaanxi silicon coal at about 880 yuan/mt, the average price of Inner Mongolia silicon coal at about 1,260 yuan/mt, the average price of Gansu silicon mixed coal at about 930 yuan/mt, and the average price of pellet coal at about 1,050 yuan/mt.

Supply:

The supply side remained relatively stable, while operating rates declined correspondingly amid reduced demand.

Demand: Based on the weekly operating rates of downstream silicon plants, overall demand for raw materials showed some contraction, mainly due to lower operating rates at some silicon plants in Xinjiang and south-west China.

Silicon Metal

Prices: The silicon metal market was in a stalemate with consolidation. Yesterday, futures moved sideways and then strengthened. SMM oxygen-blown #553 silicon in east China was at 9,200-9,300 yuan/mt, and #441 silicon was at 9,300-9,500 yuan/mt. On the futures side, the most-traded silicon contract closed at 8,900 yuan/mt at the end of the session yesterday, up 170 yuan/mt from the previous day, mainly driven by factors such as capital sentiment. Downstream silicone enterprises held another price-firming meeting this Friday, drawing attention to its impact on the silicon metal market.

Production:

Production cuts at some capacities in Xinjiang were implemented in early January, leading to a WoW weakening in silicon metal supply. Combined with the reductions reflected in mid-to-late December, silicon metal production in January decreased MoM.

Inventory:

Social Inventory: According to SMM data, social inventory of silicon metal in major regions totaled 557,000 mt on Dec. 31, up 2,000 mt WoW (excluding Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Gansu, etc.).

Silicone

Prices

DMC: The transaction price yesterday was 13,500-13,700 yuan/mt, flat WoW. Monomer enterprises currently maintain price-firming sentiment. Their actual controller meeting is scheduled to be held in Hangzhou on Jan. 9 (this Friday), with the agenda including further discussions on jointly holding prices firm. Under the influence of these expectations, market inquiry activity picked up after the holiday.

D4: The quotation yesterday was 13,600-14,300 yuan/mt, flat WoW.

107 Silicone Rubber: The quotation yesterday was 14,000-14,300 yuan/mt, flat WoW.

Raw Rubber: The quotation yesterday was 14,300-14,700 yuan/mt, flat WoW.

Silicone Oil: The quotation yesterday was 15,000-15,500 yuan/mt, flat WoW.

Production:

Monthly production in January is expected to continue its downward trend MoM. Against the backdrop of the ongoing joint emission reduction plan, individual enterprises that did not complete load reduction in December will also initiate emission reduction measures. Combined with monomer enterprises that have already reduced loads maintaining their current operating rates, overall monthly supply is still expected to decline.

Inventory:

With new orders primarily driven by rigid demand, overall inventory levels increased slightly.

Polysilicon

Price:

Quotes for N-type recharging polysilicon were 50-57 yuan/kg, granular polysilicon at 50-51 yuan/kg, and the polysilicon price index at 53.39 yuan/kg. Top-tier enterprises remain firm in holding prices at 60 yuan or above. Some sporadic high-price transactions occurred, often bundled with other terms, but downstream acceptance of high prices remains limited, with substantial real transaction volumes yet to materialize.

Production:

China's polysilicon production in January is estimated at 107,800 mt, mainly affected by production cuts in Qinghai. Although the reduction is significant, it still appears slightly surplus compared to downstream demand.

Inventory:

Polysilicon inventory continued to rise this week. The market is relatively chaotic, with some slightly higher-priced resources seeing limited transactions, but overall volume remains constrained, and polysilicon inventory continues to increase.

Wafer

Price

Market prices for 18X wafers were 1.35-1.4 yuan/piece, 210RN wafers at 1.45-1.5 yuan/piece, and 210N wafers at 1.65-1.7 yuan/piece. Following the latest wafer price hike, transactions gradually occurred, with 183-sized wafers seeing higher acceptance than the other two sizes. Wafer enterprises are unwilling to sell at low prices, and wafer prices are expected to remain largely stable in the short term.

Production

Wafer production schedules in January increased slightly by about 3%. According to a survey, two wafer enterprises officially halted production in January, while other integrated and specialized enterprises had divergent production plans. After offsetting increases and decreases, the January production schedule was raised slightly.

Inventory

Wafer enterprises began a slight inventory buildup, with upstream finished product inventories increasing noticeably in the first week of the month. After cell plants raised prices, they slowed down the pace of stockpiling and restocking. Total wafer inventory is now approaching a reasonable level.

High-Purity Quartz Sand

Price

Current domestic inner-layer sand prices were 55,000-60,000 yuan/mt, middle-layer sand at 20,000-30,000 yuan/mt, outer-layer sand at 15,000-20,000 yuan/mt, and imported high-purity quartz sand at 75,000-77,000 yuan/mt. Prices for 33-inch quartz crucibles were 6,000-6,200 yuan/piece, and 36-inch quartz crucibles at 7,000-7,400 yuan/piece. Recent negotiations for imported sand remain in a stalemate.

Production

Quartz sand enterprise production schedules decreased slightly by 2% MoM in January. Domestic high-purity quartz sand enterprises implemented production cuts to match wafer production schedules, but supply pressure remains high.

Inventory

Quartz sand inventory levels increased slightly, while purchases by crucible enterprises decreased.