The most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2602) fluctuated upward sharply, and spot market transactions may temporarily stall. [SMM Tin Morning News]

SMM Tin Morning Brief on January 7, 2026:

Futures: The most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2602) fluctuated and then climbed steadily during the night session, breaking through the 350,000-yuan mark. Driven by macro-geopolitical factors, market sentiment surged, pushing futures to a high of 359,350 yuan/mt, approaching 360,000, and closed at 357,260 yuan/mt, up 4.81%.

Macro: (1) Nvidia (NVDA.O) CFO Colette Kress stated that due to strong demand, the company's optimistic revenue forecast provided in October last year has become even more optimistic. Kress noted that customer interest has increased since the forecast was issued. In October last year, the company projected that revenue from its existing and future data center chips would reach approximately $500 billion by the end of 2026. "The $500 billion figure has certainly grown," Kress said. (2) The China Automobile Dealers Association released the latest "Automobile Consumption Index," with the December 2025 index at 97.7, higher than the previous month, indicating a strong start for the automobile market in January 2026. Among the sub-indices, the demand sub-index for December 2025 was 90.3, up MoM. Car purchase demand suppressed at the end of 2025 due to the depletion of local subsidies for trade-in policies, combined with pre-Chinese New Year purchase demand driven by the 2026 holiday, jointly boosted car purchase demand in January 2026, with January's market demand expected to be higher than in December 2025.

Fundamentals: (1) Supply side: Most smelters are expected to maintain stable production in January. (2) Demand side: Downstream procurement remains cautious, and the continuous price surge has significantly suppressed actual consumption.

Spot market: Spot market transactions showed mediocre performance. Against the backdrop of macro factors driving prices to rise sharply, downstream enterprises mostly adopted a wait-and-see attitude, with procurement focused on rigid demand and low willingness for active stockpiling, resulting in a divergence between futures and spot markets.

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