Codelco's Production Slightly Increased in 2025, LME Copper Fluctuated and Closed Higher Overnight [SMM Copper Morning Meeting Minutes]

Wednesday, January 7, 2026
Futures: Overnight, LME copper opened at $13,234.5/mt, and after hitting a high of $13,333.5/mt early in the session, its center declined sharply to hit bottom at $13,152.5/mt, then maintained rangebound fluctuations at high levels, finally closing at $13,254.5/mt, up 1.28%. Trading volume increased by 9,816 lots to 47,000 lots, while open interest fell by 1,517 lots to 338,000 lots, mainly due to short covering. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2602 contract opened at 104,480 yuan/mt, touched a high of 105,490 yuan/mt at opening, then fluctuated rangebound, finally closing at 104,600 yuan/mt, up 1.46%. Trading volume decreased by 131,000 lots to 160,000 lots, while open interest fell by 3,168 lots to 220,000 lots, mainly due to long liquidation.
[SMM Copper Morning Conference Summary] News:
(1) On January 5, Chilean media La Tercera reported that Codelco's copper production reached approximately 1.332 million mt in 2025, slightly higher than the 1.328 million mt in 2024. The 2025 output increased by about 4,000 mt compared to the previous year, indicating a slight upward trend. Codelco Chairman Maximo Pacheco stated that this year's production improved YoY. Despite facing unfavourable factors such as declining ore grade, operational challenges, and an accident at its flagship El Teniente mine, the company maintained an important position in global copper supply. Codelco has not yet provided official comments on this production data.
Spot:
(1) Shanghai: During the morning session on January 6, the SHFE copper 2601 contract moved from 102,880 yuan/mt to above 104,100 yuan/mt, then slightly pared gains. Looking ahead, high copper prices are expected to continue suppressing consumption, and spot trades are likely to continue at a discount, but market purchases will be monitored as the delivery date approaches.
(2) Guangdong: On January 6, spot prices of #1 copper cathode in Guangdong against the front-month contract were at a discount of 20 yuan/mt to a premium of 50 yuan/mt, with the average premium at 15 yuan/mt, down 25 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. SX-EW copper was quoted at a discount of 100-80 yuan/mt, with the average discount at 90 yuan/mt, down 30 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of #1 copper cathode in Guangdong was 103,815 yuan/mt, up 3,590 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, while the average price of SX-EW copper was 103,710 yuan/mt, up 3,585 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Overall, both inventory and copper prices hit new highs, downstream users retreated to the sidelines again, and spot trades were quiet.
(3) Imported copper: On January 6, warrant prices were $34-44/mt, QP January, with the average price down $4/mt from the previous trading day; B/L prices were $38-50/mt, QP February, with the average price down $2/mt from the previous trading day; EQ copper (CIF B/L) was -$4/mt to $12/mt, QP February, with the average price down $2/mt from the previous trading day. The quotes referred to cargoes arriving in early to mid-January.
(4) Secondary Copper: At 11:30 on January 6, the futures closing price was 103,900 yuan/mt, up 3,290 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the average spot premium/discount was -20 yuan/mt, down 55 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Today, the price of recycled copper raw materials rose 2,000 yuan/mt MoM. The price of bare bright copper in Guangdong was 89,300-89,500 yuan/mt, up 2,000 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap was 6,175 yuan/mt, up 1,049 yuan/mt MoM. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 2,845 yuan/mt. According to the SMM survey, copper prices surged sharply during the day. With almost no consumption from end-users, the copper price hitting new highs again nearly eliminated even rigid demand, resulting in sluggish transactions for secondary copper rod.
Price: On the macro front, US Fed Governor Milan stated that interest rate cuts in 2026 should exceed 100 basis points, intensifying market expectations for further rate cuts and providing upward momentum for copper prices. In addition, market concerns over tight supply and optimism about future demand from data centers also supported the rise in copper prices. On the fundamentals side, supply side, both registered and non-registered sources were relatively ample overall; demand side, consumption remained weak, suppressed by the surge in copper prices. Overall, given the fundamental pattern of strong supply and weak demand, copper prices are expected to have limited upside room today.
[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct investment research or decision-making advice. Clients should make decisions cautiously and not use this to replace their own independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.]