[SMM Analysis] Lithium Carbonate Futures Hit Limit Up, Sparking Seller-Buyer Stalemate

The SMM battery-grade lithium carbonate index price was 126,005 yuan/mt, up 6,152 yuan/mt from the previous working day. SMM Battery-grade lithium carbonate traded at 120,000–135,000 yuan/mt, with an average price of 127,500 yuan/mt, up 8,000 yuan/mt from the previous working day. SMM Industrial-grade lithium carbonate traded at 118,500–130,000 yuan/mt, with an average price of 124,250 yuan/mt, up 7,250 yuan/mt from the previous working day. Today, the most-traded lithium carbonate futures contract showed significant intraday volatility, fluctuating between 132,100 yuan/mt and 137,940 yuan/mt. In the morning, the market opened more than 4% higher. Subsequently, prices rose sharply in the afternoon, hitting the 8.99% daily limit and maintaining this level until the close, indicating an extremely strong intraday performance.

However, actual transactions revealed cautious attitudes among both upstream and downstream players amid the price increase. While upstream lithium chemical plants showed improved willingness to sell spot orders, they generally held prices firm and were reluctant to sell, resulting in no significant increase in market-available spot cargo despite the price rise. Downstream cathode material plants were active in inquiries during the morning session, but as futures prices surged sharply to the limit, their acceptance of high prices noticeably declined. Most manufacturers have now shifted to a cautious wait-and-see approach, with limited actual purchase willingness. In summary, following the strong price advance, the market has entered a state where upstream players are reluctant to sell at the higher end, while downstream buyers are hesitant to purchase at elevated prices.