Upstream Shows Strong Willingness to Hold Prices Firm, Module Current Quotations Raised [SMM Silicon-Based PV Morning Meeting Summary]

SMM January 5 News:

Silicon metal

price

Spot silicon metal prices fluctuated rangebound around the New Year's Day holiday. SMM oxygen-blown #553 silicon in east China was at 9,200-9,300 yuan/mt, and #421 silicon was at 9,500-9,800 yuan/mt. Spot prices were basically stable. Before the holiday, the most-traded SI futures contract also fluctuated rangebound. Downstream end-users showed strong wait-and-see sentiment, maintaining rigid demand for purchases.

Production

Production cuts at some capacities in Xinjiang were implemented in early January, leading to a WoW decrease in silicon metal supply.

Inventory

Social inventory: According to SMM data, total social inventory of silicon metal in major regions reached 557,000 mt as of December 31, up 2,000 mt WoW (excluding Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Gansu, etc.).

Polysilicon

Price

Over the weekend, N-type recharging polysilicon was quoted at 50-56 yuan/kg, the N-type polysilicon price index was 52.87 yuan/kg, and granular polysilicon was quoted at 50-51 yuan/kg. Overall polysilicon prices rose recently. With downstream price increases and upstream polysilicon enterprises holding prices firm, the price center for polysilicon transactions moved upward. However, there remains a gap between the quotes from top-tier enterprises, generally above 60 yuan, and the acceptance from downstream enterprises, which face cost pressure and find it difficult to accept currently.

Production

Domestic production in December is expected to be 114,500 mt. Production in January will continue to decrease, but the decline is expected to be limited.

Inventory

Polysilicon inventory increased noticeably. Due to recent polysilicon price increases and sharp fluctuations in the downstream market, order signing was minimal, leading to a random increase in inventory.

Module

Price

Before the holiday, module prices continued to rise slightly. Some high-priced transactions in the market have now exceeded 0.7 yuan/W. Dealers, fearing order cancellations, entered the market to purchase. Amid concerns about further increases in module costs, purchase volumes gradually increased. However, end-use demand remains relatively weak, and purchasing willingness is poor, leading to a divergence in market demand. Prices are expected to continue fluctuating. Currently, distributed Topcon 183, 210R, and 210N high-efficiency modules are quoted at 0.669 yuan/W, 0.682 yuan/W, and 0.677 yuan/W respectively, while centralized Topcon 182/183 and 210N high-efficiency modules are quoted at 0.67 yuan/W and 0.69 yuan/W respectively.

Production

Domestic supply maintained a downward trend last week, although some module factories maintained relatively high operating rates. Although the module production schedule for January continues to decline, some module enterprises plan to advance production for February, so production is still expected to be around 30 GW.

Inventory

In terms of weekly inventory, inventory levels still decreased slightly last week. Recently, purchasing sentiment among downstream enterprises and dealers has improved somewhat.

High-Purity Quartz Sand

Price

Current domestic inner-layer sand prices are 55,000-60,000 yuan/mt, middle-layer sand prices are 20,000-30,000 yuan/mt, outer-layer sand prices are 15,000-20,000 yuan/mt, and imported high-purity quartz sand prices are 76,000-78,000 yuan/mt. The price for a 33-inch quartz crucible is 6,000-6,200 yuan/piece, and for a 36-inch quartz crucible is 7,000-7,400 yuan/piece. Recent negotiations for imported sand remain in a stalemate.

Production

In January, the planned production of quartz sand enterprises decreased slightly by 2% MoM. Domestic high-purity quartz sand enterprises cut production to match the wafer production schedule, and supply pressure remains high.

Inventory

At year-end, crucible enterprises made reasonable purchases based on the wafer production schedule, and the quartz sand inventory level increased slightly.

PV Glass

Price

3.2mm Single-Layer Coating: The quoted price for 3.2mm single-layer coating PV glass is 17.5-19 yuan/m², and the price is temporarily stable.

3.2mm Double-Layer Coating: The quoted price for 3.2mm double-layer coating PV glass is 18.5-20 yuan/m², and the price is temporarily stable.

2.0mm Single-Layer Coating: The quoted price for 2.0mm single-layer coating PV glass is 10.5-11.5 yuan/m². Prices continued to fall last week during the domestic post-settlement period, as enterprises faced huge inventory pressure, with most nearing full capacity, leading to discounted sales and price declines.

2.0mm Double-Layer Coating: The quoted price for 2.0mm double-layer coating PV glass is 11.5-12.5 yuan/m², and the price decreased.

Production

Domestic operating rates remained stable; although most enterprises plan production cuts, no actual reductions have occurred yet.

Inventory

Glass inventory levels continued to rise. Module scheduled production declined, but glass operating rates remained high, and inventory is expected to potentially exceed 40 days subsequently.