China’s Refined Copper Exports Expected to Remain Above 100kt in January 2026

From November to December 2025, China’s copper cathode exports remained elevated, with monthly exports exceeding 100,000 tonnes for two consecutive months, reaching 143,000 tonnes in November and a preliminary estimate of 85,000 tonnes in December. As global regional price structures remain misaligned, the counter-cyclical export window has yet to close. Exports in January 2025 are expected to stay strong, likely above the 100,000-tonne threshold.

The core drivers behind exports remain unchanged. On the one hand, domestic smelters continue to face pressure on the raw material side due to persistently negative copper concentrate TCs, prompting some producers to seek more favorable margin structures through overseas sales, thereby strengthening export incentives. On the other hand, with end-user demand yet to enter a full recovery phase, exports have become an important channel for alleviating production and sales pressures.

In terms of destinations, the COMEX–LME arbitrage spread has narrowed, and exports to the United States are expected to decline sharply. Meanwhile, non–long-term contract demand in regions such as the Middle East, Southeast Asia, and Europe is growing. China’s short lead times and flexible branding in spot supply continue to attract overseas buyers.

Although the approaching Lunar New Year may cause short-term disruptions, most shipping schedules are already arranged through early January. Combined with smelter loading plans surveyed by SMM, January exports are expected to remain in the range of 100,000–110,000 tonnes, serving as a key supportive factor at the start of 2025.