Various Issue will Lead to a Unpredictable Offshore Spot Market in the End of 2025

During the week (December 29–31), the weekly average transaction range for Yangshan copper premium bills of lading was USD 44–56/mt (QP January), with an average of USD 50/mt, down USD 3.4/mt WoW.
Warehouse warrants were quoted at USD 46–57.33/mt (QP January), averaging USD 51.67/mt, down USD 1.9/mt WoW.
EQ copper CIF bills of lading were quoted at USD 2.67–13.33/mt (QP January), with an average of USD 8/mt, down USD 3/mt WoW.

As of December 31, the LME copper vs SHFE 2601 contract import parity (excluding FX effects) stood at 1.1283, with import losses around RMB –700/mt.
As of Wednesday, the LME copper 3M–Jan spread was at BACK USD 48.52/mt, while the January–February date spread was approximately BACK USD 9.6/mt.

Currently, fire-refined high-grade copper warehouse warrants are trading at USD 54/mt, with mainstream fire-refined and domestic warrants at USD 40–50/mt, and SX warrants at USD 40–45/mt.
For bills of lading, high-grade copper is trading at USD 50–55/mt, mainstream fire-refined and domestic cargoes at around USD 40–50/mt, and SX copper at USD 40/mt.
EQ copper CIF bills of lading are quoted at USD 2–12/mt, averaging USD 7/mt.

With only three trading days this week, the spot market remained firmly in a seasonal lull. As January exports are expected to rise sharply, premiums for warehouse warrants and bills of lading came under downward pressure. Meanwhile, liquidity in the spot market weakened amid cash recovery needs.

Looking ahead, spot market sentiment is expected to rebound notably after the New Year holiday. Domestic smelters are set to ramp up exports, while some foreign trade long-term contracts will begin execution, likely increasing traders’ demand for spot circulation. After a brief period of stabilization next week, Yangshan copper premiums are expected to have significant upside potential.

According to SMM surveys, as of Thursday (December 31), bonded-zone copper inventories in China rose by 0.01 mt WoW from December 25 to 75,500 mt.

• Shanghai bonded inventories fell by 600 mt WoW to 66,700 mt;

• Guangdong bonded inventories increased by 700 mt WoW to 8,800 mt.

Overall, bonded-zone inventories remained largely flat this week. Arrivals in Shanghai declined, while exports from the Huangpu bonded zone in Guangdong continued to increase. Looking ahead, as smelter exports are expected to keep rising after the New Year, bonded-zone inventories are likely to continue building.