MMi Daily Iron Ore Report (December 31)

As of December 2, the operating rate for 50 EAF steel mills primarily producing construction materials nationwide was 39.1%, up 0.74% WoW; the capacity utilization rate was 41.06%, up 1.17% WoW; the daily average production of construction materials was 92,700 mt, an increase of 2,600 mt WoW.

In 2025, steel mill profits significantly recovered. According to SMM data, as of November 27, the average spot profits for domestic blast furnace steel mills in east China were 90 yuan/mt for rebar, 170 yuan/mt for hot-rolled coil, and 308 yuan/mt for cold-rolled coil, with an average profit of 189 yuan/mt across the three products. However, the average was 96 yuan/mt in 2024, 152 yuan/mt in 2023, and even -19 yuan/mt in 2022. It is evident that compared to the period from 2022 to 2024, steel mill profits achieved a comprehensive recovery this year.

According to the SMM survey, as of November 12, the blast furnace operating rate of the 242 steel mills surveyed by SMM stood at 86.64%, up 0.24 percentage points WoW.

Cold rolling capacity increased by 60% over the past decade. From 2015 to 2020, cold rolling capacity grew steadily and rapidly, with an average annual growth rate of 9.7%, peaking at around 11% in 2020. Starting in 2021, the Implementation Measures for Capacity Replacement in the Steel Industry promoted an increase in the cold rolling capacity utilization rate, leading to a significant rise in cold rolling production, while the growth rate of cold rolling capacity slowed down, with the average annual growth rate from 2021 to 2024 slowing to 2.9%.

Vale (NYSE:VALE) is setting its sights on India as the next big growth story in steel. CEO Gustavo Pimenta told Reuters that while China's steel production has flattened at around 1 billion metric tons a year, India's demand is just getting started and Vale wants to be ready.

SMM Steel, November 4 – According to SMM statistics, the estimated total shipments of mainstream markets this week were 245,800 mt, up 31.51% WoW. By market:

According to the SMM survey, the impact from maintenance on construction steel increased slightly during the current period (10.18-10.24), as some steel mills switched production to other varieties and scheduled annual maintenance. The impact from maintenance on construction steel during this period reached 1.3002 million mt, up 12,000 mt WoW.

In 2024, China commissioned a total of 17 cold-rolling and coating steel production lines, with a cumulative capacity of approximately 8.39 million mt.

According to the SMM survey, the SMM Ningbo HRC large-port statistical inventory stood at 383,500 mt as of September 17, up 4,000 mt WoW. This week, HRC prices first rose then fell, with spot prices fluctuating rangebound by 10-20 yuan/mt WoW. Trading atmosphere was moderate during the week, with end-users purchasing as needed and showing relatively low restocking willingness. As of the afternoon close on September 19, the most-traded HRC 2601 futures contract settled at 3,374 yuan/mt.

According to the SMM survey, the impact from maintenance on construction steel declined during the current period (9.6-9.12) as steel mills resumed production as planned after the military parade, while some completed routine maintenance on blast furnaces, with both the furnaces and their supporting rebar rolling lines returning to operation. The impact from maintenance on construction steel reached 1.213 million mt this period, down 20,600 mt MoM.