Off-Season Coupled With High Aluminum Prices, December Aluminum Liquid Direct Sales Ratio Declines [SMM Analysis]

Published: Dec 31, 2025 13:44

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SMM December 31 News:

According to SMM statistics, China's aluminum production in December 2025 (31 days) increased by 1.9% YoY and 4.0% MoM. The overall operating rate of downstream sectors showed a downward trend during the month, and the proportion of liquid aluminum also decreased, dropping 0.8 percentage points MoM to 76.5%, a decline that exceeded initial monthly expectations. The main reasons include: 1. The impact of the traditional off-season exceeded expectations; 2. Aluminum prices fluctuated at highs, putting further pressure on downstream profits; 3. Environmental protection-driven production restrictions in some regions continued to intensify, to a greater extent than initially expected at the start of the month. Based on SMM's liquid aluminum proportion data, China's aluminum casting ingot volume in December decreased by 13.4% YoY but increased by 7.7% MoM.

Capacity Changes:As of the end of December, SMM statistics show China's existing aluminum capacity was approximately 46.209 million mt, and operating aluminum capacity was approximately 44.608 million mt.

(SMM made revisions after combining capacity replacement situations and old plant demolitions, and eliminating some double-counted capacity.)

Production Forecast:Entering January 2026, operating aluminum capacity is expected to increase MoM, as some new aluminum projects are expected to steadily commence and ramp up production. Regarding the liquid aluminum proportion, downstream demand is marginally weakening. Affected by this marginal weakening and high aluminum prices, enterprises' willingness to cast ingots is strengthening, and the liquid aluminum proportion is expected to decline. Overall, the liquid aluminum proportion is projected to decrease by 1.4 percentage points to 75.1%.

[Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, other data are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database model, and are for reference only, not constituting decision-making advice.]

Data Source: SMM

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM‘s internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

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