SMM Analysis: Rebar Market 2025 Review & 2026 Outlook

I. Macro Environment Analysis for 2025
Multiple factors on the macro front significantly disturbed market sentiment in the rebar market in 2025. The phased escalation of China-US trade friction exerted downward pressure on the market; the US Fed's monetary policy path experienced repeated twists and turns, with interest rate cut expectations repeatedly impacting market sentiment. The convening of the Sixth Meeting of the Central Committee for Financial and Economic Affairs on July 1 explicitly proposed rectifying low-price disorderly competition and promoting the exit of outdated capacity in accordance with laws and regulations. The release of "anti-involution" policy signals at the national level drove a recovery in positive industry sentiment.

II. 2025 Rebar Market Price Review
Rebar prices exhibited a "W"-shaped trend in 2025, with the price center shifting significantly downward. Prices fell from 3,415 yuan/mt at the beginning of the year to the year's low of 3,051 yuan/mt on June 26; subsequently, prices rebounded from the low, reaching the year's high of 3,350 yuan/mt on July 30. As supply-demand imbalances became prominent, prices fluctuated weakly, reaching 3,051 yuan/mt again on October 16. Approaching year-end, increased annual inspections at steel mills alleviated supply pressure, supporting range-bound price movements. Overall, the full-year price fluctuation range in 2025 was within 400 yuan, narrower than the previous year. The national average rebar price for the year was 3,200 yuan/mt, down 10.5% YoY.

January-June: On the macro news front, the escalation of China-US trade friction spread market panic, significantly impacting bulk commodity prices overall; high coal supply led to continuous price declines, resulting in weak cost-side support. Coupled with an unremarkable performance during the traditional "Golden March, Silver April" demand peak season and no significant reduction in supply, fundamental driving forces were insufficient, and spot prices continued to fall to the year's low.

June-July: Expectations for "anti-involution" policies drove prices higher, stricter safety inspections at coal mines, and rising raw material costs simultaneously improved sentiment towards rebar, leading to a phased rebound in prices to mid-year highs.

August-October: Market trading logic returned to fundamentals. During the summer off-season demand period, rebar inventory buildup phase, supply-demand imbalances gradually became prominent. Spot prices fluctuated downward, and the escalation of China-US trade conflicts accelerated the decline to lower levels. October-December: Sino-US relations eased, sentiment pushed up spot prices, coupled with large supply cuts due to annual maintenance at steel mills. Demand in some regions remained resilient by year-end, and the supply-demand imbalance was relatively small, with prices still fluctuating within a range.

III. Analysis of Rebar Fundamentals
1. Supply Side: Capacity Constraints and Structural Optimization Lead to Gradual Contraction in Rebar Supply
In recent years, to curb blind expansion and improve the industry environment, the government has continuously implemented controls on crude steel production, strictly prohibiting the addition of non-compliant capacity and encouraging the elimination of outdated capacity, to promote survival of the fittest and optimize the steel industry structure. From the perspective of application fields, manufacturing has replaced traditional construction as the new growth pillar for steel. To adapt to this trend, domestic steel mills have been continuously optimizing their product structures, allocating more hot metal resources to high-benefit varieties.
Statistics of recent technological transformations in rolling lines at some steel mills show that, apart from Gao Yi in Shanxi and Han Steel in Shaanxi, other manufacturers such as Jianbang, Jinshenglan, and Daye Huaxin also plan to shift towards variety materials. Additionally, there is still room for an increase in overseas steel billet exports, which may further boost the direct sales of steel billets by steel mills. Under the influence of multiple factors, it is expected that rebar production will have limited growth potential, and 2026 production may decline further from the 2025 level.
2. Demand Side: Real Estate Consolidates at Lows, Infrastructure Provides Support
The real estate sector remains in a deep adjustment phase in 2025, with cumulative YoY figures for development investment, new starts, completions, and post-construction areas from January to November being -15.9%, -20.5%, -18%, and -9.6% respectively, dragging down demand for rebar. Looking ahead to 2026, the focus of housing construction will continue to shift from "incremental development" to "stock upgrading." Given that multiple indicators such as investment and sales are still weakening, the real estate sector is expected to consolidate at lows. However, under the impetus of various policies aimed at stabilizing and reversing the decline in the property market, the pace of industry downturn is expected to slow down, and the drag on economic operations and steel demand will be somewhat alleviated. SMM estimates that steel demand in the real estate sector will decrease by around 6% in 2026. From the infrastructure sector perspective, constrained by multiple factors including insufficient domestic demand and local fiscal pressures, the infrastructure sector faced significant operational challenges in 2025. From January to November 2025, investment in infrastructure (excluding the production and supply of electricity, thermal power, gas, and water) fell by 1.1% YoY. Looking ahead to 2026, the Ministry of Finance has explicitly stated that it will accelerate the process of approving debt quotas to ensure funding for key projects in Q1. Additionally, 500 billion yuan will be allocated from the local government debt carry-over limit to support local construction, providing a boost to the infrastructure sector. From a project standpoint, major infrastructure projects such as the lower reaches of the Yarlung Tsangpo River hydropower project, the Sichuan-Tibet Railway, and the rural road upgrade initiative over the next five years will underpin steel demand. With the dual stimulus of project support and fiscal reinforcement, SMM expects overall steel demand in the infrastructure sector to improve by about 1% in 2026.

IV. 2026 Rebar Market Outlook
Domestic macro policies are still expected to remain supportive in 2026, coupled with an accelerated pace of mergers and acquisitions among steel enterprises, the phasing out of outdated capacity, production control policies, and ongoing efforts to increase industrial concentration. Producers of multiple product varieties are shifting or increasing production toward other high-value-added steel products. Furthermore, there remains room for growth in overseas exports of steel billets, which may further increase the volume of billets sold directly by steel mills. Pressure on rebar production is expected to ease noticeably. The downward trend in the real estate cycle persists, with lingering demand drag effects. Infrastructure projects will continue to cushion the decline in construction demand from the property sector. However, slow implementation of "using new debt to repay old debt" funds will continue to affect end-user project construction progress, making it difficult for domestic demand to deliver noticeably outstanding performance. Overall, with continued supply reduction and overseas demand still holding promise, the supply-demand structure for rebar may improve further. The price center for rebar is expected to experience a slight upward shift in 2026, with relatively narrow fluctuations throughout the year.