Triple Logic Resonance: Battery-Grade Mn3O4 Market Volume and Prices to Rise Steadily in 2026

Looking ahead to 2026, the domestic battery-grade Mn3O4 market is expected to enter a development window with multiple favorable factors converging. Upgraded and expanded demand, orderly supply release, and strong cost-side support will resonate, driving the industry to move beyond traditional cyclical fluctuations and enter a new phase of benign development characterized by steady production growth and modest price increases.

Robust demand growth will serve as the core engine supporting the market's upward trend. The continued positive momentum in the global NEV industry is directly driving the steady recovery of the downstream LMO market, injecting sustained expansion momentum into the traditional demand segment for battery-grade Mn3O4. More notably, the commercialization process of LMFP cathode materials is accelerating, with leading enterprises such as Hunan Yuneng and Easpring Technology successively commissioning related capacity, which is set to open up a substantial new incremental market for battery-grade Mn3O4. Concurrently, incremental demand from the ESS battery and power battery sectors continues to be released, further lifting the industry's demand baseline and promoting an optimization and diversification of the demand structure for battery-grade Mn3O4 towards high-end and varied applications.

The supply side will continue its rational expansion, providing solid support for the supply-demand balance. The minor peak in capacity commissioning that began in H2 2025 will continue to release its effects throughout 2026, effectively broadening channels for production growth. Against this backdrop, the prevailing "produce based on sales" operational model within the industry will continue to play a role. Enterprises, leveraging their close ties with end-users, will reasonably adjust their production pace to ensure orderly production growth while avoiding market volatility caused by blind capacity expansion, thereby maintaining a fundamental supply-demand balance.

The strong support structure on the cost side lays a solid foundation for price increases. Cost side, EMM prices are projected to continue rising, while the manganese sulphate market is also expected to hold firm, supported by robust demand and cost pass-through. These dual raw material cost pressures will be transmitted downstream through the industry chain. Coupled with increasingly stringent environmental protection policies and rising compliance costs for enterprises, the pricing support for battery-grade Mn3O4 producers has significantly strengthened, resulting in a clear and solid logic for price increases. Overall, the battery-grade Mn3O4 market in 2026 will achieve high-quality development, supported by three core drivers: growing demand, orderly supply, and high costs. The industry will not only see steady rises in both production and prices but will also leverage the opportunity of upgrading demand structure to continuously improve development quality, effectively secure profit margins, and maintain a clear trend of fluctuating upward.