In 2025, the domestic battery-grade Mn3O4 market exhibited the characteristics of "adjustment during the off-season, rising during the peak season, and fluctuating growth throughout the year," with the core driver being the cyclical fluctuations in downstream LMO demand and the initial volume release from emerging sectors such as LMFP.
The production of battery-grade Mn3O4 in 2025 generally showed a pattern of MoM fluctuations and YoY growth. The annual operational pace was closely tied to the downstream LMO market cycle, while exploration in emerging demand areas injected new vitality into industry growth.
The market in H1 was primarily characterized by phased adjustments. In January, due to the approaching Chinese New Year, some enterprises implemented production cuts and destocking measures. Coupled with weak demand in the LMO market, battery-grade Mn3O4 production dropped back slightly MoM. In February, after the holiday, enterprises gradually resumed normal production. Combined with low LMO market inventory prompting just-in-time procurement, production rebounded slightly MoM and showed a significant increase YoY. In March, benefiting from increased LMO production driving demand, production continued its MoM growth trend. From April to June, entering the traditional off-season, LMO market demand was weak with low purchase willingness. Additionally, some enterprises had sufficient raw material inventory, leading to a continuous decline in the battery-grade Mn3O4 production schedule, with a particularly noticeable reduction in June. During this period, although the LMFP market was in a development phase, its growth was slow and the manganese source selection was not yet fixed, failing to provide effective demand support.
The market gradually entered an upward trajectory in H2. Starting in July, the LMO market recovered slightly, driving a rebound in the battery-grade Mn3O4 production schedule. During the traditional peak consumption season in September-October, demand-side performance was strong. Increased LMO market demand combined with stable procurement from the LMFP market pushed battery-grade production to continue growing MoM. On the raw material side, simultaneous price increases for EMM and manganese sulphate further strengthened enterprises' mentality to hold prices firm. The industry generally maintained a "produce based on sales" model, with inventory kept at safe levels. In November, driven by rising lithium carbonate prices, LMO market activity increased. Combined with the release of incremental demand from ESS batteries and power batteries, battery-grade Mn3O4 production grew against the trend MoM. Meanwhile, a small peak in industry capacity commissioning in H2 provided support for production growth. In December, as the end-use market entered the year-end off-season, LMO procurement contracted, and production is expected to pull back slightly MoM, with the decline controlled within 5%. Throughout the year, battery-grade Mn3O4 became the core growth engine of the Mn3O4 market. Enterprises effectively avoided the risk of raw material price fluctuations through a fixed-price model, achieving a positive cycle of production enthusiasm and profit margins during the demand recovery period.
