Key Turning Point Approaches! HPMSM to Shift from "Narrowing Surplus" to "Slight Shortage" in 2026

In 2026, the high-purity manganese sulphate market will see a convergence of favorable factors, with the supply-demand pattern undergoing a critical shift from "narrowing surplus" to "slight shortage," maintaining an overall tight balance. Prices are highly likely to remain within a high range, and the industry will enter a virtuous development stage characterized by "stable volume and strong prices."

Demand growth will serve as the core support for the market, with full-year procurement volume significantly higher than in 2025. First, the accelerated adoption of high-nickel materials in global NEVs will directly drive ternary cathode precursor production up over 25% YoY, providing a core demand increment for high-purity manganese sulphate. Second, with the maturation of medium-nickel high-voltage material technology and rapid volume expansion, coupled with tight cobalt sulphate supply due to DRC export policies, medium-to-high nickel materials will continue to dominate the domestic ternary power market, further amplifying demand. Third, ternary cathode materials are irreplaceable in high-end applications such as long-range EVs, the low-altitude economy, and drones, and small-batch production of semi-solid/solid-state batteries will drive the release of high-end demand. Fourth, LFP's market share is already at a high level, and the pace of its substitution for ternary materials is expected to slow down, providing stability for demand in the ternary industry chain.

The supply side faces no significant pressure for large-scale capacity expansion and will continue to operate rationally. Manganese salt producers will adhere to the "produce based on sales" strategy, relying on long-term contracts with downstream battery enterprises to lock in core capacity, keeping the proportion of long-term contracts high and spot circulation volume consistently limited. Although the purification volume of by-product manganese sulphate solution from MHP will increase simultaneously, it will be insufficient to fill the demand increment. Combined with the effects of earlier capacity controls and resource constraints, the release of new industry capacity will be limited, preventing a loose supply situation and solidifying the foundation for a tight supply-demand balance.

Strong support from the cost side will persist throughout 2026, providing a solid price floor. In the upstream sulphuric acid market, prices are likely to remain high due to the difficult improvement in the sulphur supply-demand pattern and the slow resumption of production from maintenance units. The tightness of international manganese ore supply is unlikely to reverse in the short term, and domestic enterprises will have rigid restocking needs even during the off-season, keeping prices firm. Additionally, high manganese residue treatment costs under environmental protection policies will maintain substantial comprehensive cost pressure on manganese salt producers. Comprehensively, the high-purity manganese sulphate market in 2026 will see three major positive factors—demand growth, stable supply control, and high costs—resonating together, with a clear tight supply-demand balance, and prices will remain in a high range. Although downstream players may have a periodic desire to bargain down prices, the strong fundamentals will make it difficult to alter the overall upward fluctuation trend of the market, and industry profit margins will be well protected.