Multiple Positive Factors Converge, Spot EMM Soars, Active Market Trading, Bullish Outlook for the Future

The EMM market recently exhibited a sharp upward trend, with spot prices rising rapidly and trading activity continuing to intensify. Positive factors on both the supply and demand sides were released simultaneously, supported by the peak stockpiling season, leading to increasingly bullish industry sentiment and a clear upward trajectory for EMM prices.

Mounting cost pressure on the raw material side served as a key driver for the price increase. According to reports, South32 raised its offer for Australian lumps scheduled for shipment to China in January 2026 to $4.85/mtu, up by $0.3/mtu from previous levels. The renewed rise in manganese ore prices further strengthened traders' reluctance to sell, tightening the availability of raw materials in the market. Some traders suspended offers amid strong wait-and-see sentiment. Meanwhile, although the main production areas in south China have not yet entered the peak dry season, hydropower supply has already tightened, directly pushing up electricity costs. In major producing regions such as Guangxi and Guizhou, differentiated production restrictions under the autumn-winter pollution prevention campaign have been implemented, forcing small and medium-sized enterprises with substandard environmental protection facilities to reduce output or halt production. The decline in operating rates further constrained supply. Sulphuric acid, a key auxiliary material in EMM production, saw a significant price surge recently, with both volume and prices rising in the market. Industry data show that offers in major domestic sulphuric acid regions increased by over 15% MoM, with prices in some areas exceeding yuan 950/mt due to tight supply. The rapid rise in sulphuric acid prices substantially increased auxiliary material costs for EMM production, significantly strengthening cost support across the entire industry chain and providing a solid foundation for further price increases.From the market dynamics perspective, current spot inventory among mainstream producers is low, with most focusing on fulfilling long-term contracts. Spot order quotations continue to be raised, and some enterprises have even suspended accepting spot orders, intensifying the tight supply atmosphere in the market. Demand side, rigid procurement remains strong, coupled with the arrival of the stockpiling peak season, market sentiment continues to heat up. Entering December, steel mill tender activity further intensified, with tender volumes significantly higher compared to November. Key steel mills such as HBIS and Shagang have successively announced their December tender plans, with tender volumes generally increasing by 10%-20% MoM, indicating continuous release of rigid procurement demand. Simultaneously, approaching Christmas, the stockpiling cycle for downstream industries like alloys and chemicals has officially begun, steadily boosting market demand. From spot market trading, recent market inquiries and trading volume have both increased significantly. To ensure production continuity, some downstream enterprises are accepting the current price increases and proactively accelerating their procurement pace; traders show a strong willingness to hold prices firm, raising quotations in line with the market, which narrows the price negotiation range and further amplifies the market's upward momentum.

Overall, driven by the resonance of multiple positive factors including rising raw material costs, supply contraction, peak season stockpiling demand, and rigid steel mill procurement, the spot circulation volume of EMM in the market continues to shrink sharply. The pattern of undersupply and difficulty in sourcing goods becomes increasingly clear, directly driving a significant rise in spot prices. According to the latest market quotations, the domestic EMM spot mainstream quotation has climbed to 15,800 yuan/mt, up more than 5% since the beginning of the month, with quotations for some high-quality supplies exceeding 16,000 yuan/mt.

Looking ahead, the industry's supply-demand tight balance is unlikely to ease in the short term. Combined with positive market sentiment and low spot inventory, EMM prices are highly likely to continue their upward trend. Although downstream players may have a desire to bargain down prices, it is expected to be difficult to halt the upward price trend given the strong supply-demand fundamentals and cost support. The market as a whole is expected to maintain a pattern of fluctuating upward.